Svmuureports that major investment banks have provided their outlook on the Fed's future interest rate path, with the earliest rate cuts expected to begin in September:
1. Wells Fargo: Still expects the Fed to implement two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, in September and December respectively.
2. ANZ Bank: The Fed is highly likely to restart the rate-cutting cycle in the third quarter of this year, most probably at the September meeting.
3. Goldman Sachs: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in both September and December, and sees a very low probability of a rate hike this year.
4. Bank of America: The downside risks to economic growth lead us to continue forecasting a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed later this year.
5. TD Securities: By the time of the September meeting, the market will have accumulated sufficient evidence to support the Fed in gradually moving back towards an easing cycle.
6. Standard Chartered Bank: Once Kevin Warsh's nomination is confirmed, the Fed is very likely to shift its focus towards reviving the weak job market and resuming rate cuts.
7. Commerzbank: The Fed will be unable to resist political pressure from the U.S. President in the medium to long term, potentially making its first rate cut at the end of the year, followed by two more cuts in 2027.
8. Danske Bank: Expects the Fed to maintain rates unchanged throughout the summer, eventually resuming rate cuts in September and December.
9. Barclays: If inflation eases as expected, the Fed is expected to gain enough confidence around September to begin easing policy.
10. ING: Maintains its forecast of two rate cuts by the Fed this year, in September and December.
11. BNY Mellon: Assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the Fed will implement two rate cuts in the fourth quarter. (Jin Shi)