Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket probability of "0 Fed rate cuts of 25 bps in 2026" has risen to 58%, up 9% in the past 24 hours. To date, the total trading volume for the "How many 25 bps rate cuts by the Fed in 2026" prediction event has approached $22 million.
The contract rules for this event are: Settlement is based on the actual number of 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 (including any cuts at the December meeting). If the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points following one meeting, it will be counted as two separate 25 bps cuts. Emergency rate cuts outside of the regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings will also be included in the total number of rate cuts for 2026. The market will remain open until 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026. If the specified number of rate cuts cannot be achieved, the market will resolve to "No" early.
Following the release of U.S. economic data today, U.S. interest rate futures data indicated a slight increase in market expectations for the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of 2026.
Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing change before the price is set.