Svmuureports that CryptoQuant analyst BorisD points out that Ethereum still faces obvious downside risks. The combination of rising exchange supply and continued ETF outflows could push prices down to around $1,700, representing a potential correction of about 20% from current levels. A breakout above $2,400 seems unlikely in the near term.
Data shows that ETH reserves on exchanges like Binance have increased significantly recently, rising from approximately 3.36 million to 3.84 million between May 5 and May 9. This indicates more tokens are flowing into trading platforms, which is typically interpreted by the market as a signal of rising potential sell pressure. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have seen net capital outflows for four consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $190 million, indicating weakening institutional demand at the margin.
In terms of price, although ETH has rebounded about 40% from its local low, it encountered strong resistance near $2,400 before falling back to the $2,260 level, limiting short-term upward momentum. The CryptoQuant analyst notes that as exchange inflows accelerate, the price has failed to sustain its upward trend and instead retreated, suggesting the market may be in a phase where "absorption and distribution coexist."
Technically, ETH has broken below the lower trendline of an ascending wedge structure (around $2,280). If this breakdown is confirmed, the pattern's measured move target points to around $1,725, corresponding to a potential decline of approximately 22% and coinciding with the macro low area from early February. Some analysts further believe that if the larger bear flag pattern continues, ETH could face the risk of dipping to $1,280.
Overall, market sentiment is generally cautious, with a consensus that the current rebound is more likely a temporary move within a distribution process rather than a trend reversal signal. The risk of short-term volatility remains elevated. (Cointelegraph)