Svmuu News “1011 Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin pointed out in his latest market commentary that, against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively “blockaded” for three months. However, the market has already become “desensitized” to this geopolitical risk, and the AI narrative is reshaping traditional risk pricing logic. As a result, AI is significantly weakening the market's sensitivity to oil prices and geopolitical shocks. Since the emergence of ceasefire signals, U.S. stocks have “decoupled” from energy shocks, with gains in chip and tech stocks offsetting the impact from the energy sector, leading the market to gradually overlook the Strait of Hormuz risk. Nevertheless, he cautioned that the AI sector faces short-term risks of overvaluation and crowded trades, and a pullback could occur at any time.
In the energy market, the earlier assessment that the Strait of Hormuz risk had not been fully priced in has proven correct. Oil prices had risen due to supply shock expectations, but peaked and then declined following the release of strategic reserves and the U.S. intervention as a “supplier of last resort.” A successful exit was achieved on April 29-30. He believes the current risk-reward ratio for oil prices is no longer attractive.
On the macro and equity market front, U.S. households' holdings of stocks as a percentage of financial assets have reached approximately 47%, surpassing the level seen during the internet bubble era. This means a market downturn would, in turn, constrain policy. The VIX volatility index triggered different policy shift thresholds around 30 and 50, reflecting a “risk-off driven policy” characteristic.
In the gold market, the recent pullback in gold is not due to the fading of a war premium but rather changes in long-term structural demand. Since 2022, central banks globally have been purchasing gold at an average annual rate of over a thousand tons, primarily for de-dollarization and hedging against sanctions risks. He defines gold as “an ultimate exit tool outside the dollar system” rather than a mere safe-haven asset.
In the crypto market, the liquidity inflection point occurred last October, with funds flowing more toward AI assets, leading to a periodic drain from the crypto market. However, he believes the market is currently in a cyclical bear phase. Rebound rallies exist, but they do not equate to the start of a new bull run. The market must wait for liquidity to restart in a new cycle. The AI era is emerging as the dominant capital narrative. Even if a bubble exists, the structural opportunities it brings represent “a rare window of opportunity for ordinary investors.” Nevertheless, market cycle discipline should not be overlooked.