Polymarket’s probability that “the Donald Trumps will agree to ease sanctions on Iranian oil by the end of June” has risen to 87%, up 12% over the past 24 hours.
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel, the probability on Polymarket that “the Donald Trumpll agree to ease sanctions on Iranian oil by the end of June” has risen to 87%, up 12% over the past 24 hours. The contract rules for this event are as follows: If the U.S. agrees to lift, suspend, exempt, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports before 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on June 30, 2026, the outcome will be deemed “Yes”; otherwise, it will be deemed “No.”Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refer to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transportation, purchase, or export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, or petrochemical products (including transportation, insurance, and financial transactions related to such exports). The U.S. is deemed to have agreed to lift, suspend, exempt, or otherwise reduce such sanctions if the following conditions are met: 1. Donald Trump or an authorized representative of the U.S. government has publicly announced that the United States has definitively agreed to lift, suspend, exempt, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil; 2. The lifting, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions has been incorporated into a treaty or agreement formally concluded between the United States and Iran, including treaties or agreements concluded through signature or other formal means. Donald Trump posted on social media today: “An agreement with Iran has been reached.Congratulations to everyone! I hereby fully authorize free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and also authorize the immediate lifting of the U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iran. Ships of the world, set sail. Let the oil flow!” Svmuu Seer, the Prophet Channel, continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
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