According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, the probability on Polymarket that “Claude Fable 5 will resume service for U.S. customers by July 1” has risen to 73%, up 33% over the past 24 hours. If Anthropic reopens Claude Fable 5 (or Claude Mythos, or a version confirmed to be the same model) to the U.S. public before the specified date, this event will settle as “Yes”; otherwise, it will settle as “No.” Eligible methods of restoration include public beta or public waitlists; closed beta and private access do not count. Other models such as Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus are not included by default, unless confirmed to be the same model as Claude Fable 5. Settlement is primarily based on official announcements from Anthropic, with reference to consensus reports from mainstream media. Due to export controls imposed by the U.S. government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9. Although the restrictions were primarily aimed at foreign users, due to the difficulty of verifying user identities in real time, Anthropic ultimately blocked access for all users, including those in the U.S., and redirected requests to less capable models such as Opus 4.8. Anthropic is currently engaged in high-level discussions with the White House regarding the model’s capabilities and potential jailbreak risks. The company has publicly stated that the ban may stem from a misunderstanding and is working to restore access. The Svmuu Seer channel continues to monitor prediction markets, identifying changes before they are priced in.