Svmuu News: Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, wrote that since the war in Iran began in late February, U.S. stocks have risen 9%, the Bitcoins has fallen 1%, and gold has dropped 20%.Although significant AI-related spending has supported the stock market, Bitcoin and gold have underperformed, partly due to market expectations that Federal Reserve may raise interest rates to combat inflation. Grayscale does not share this view; its base-case scenario is that Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes.Zach Pandl noted that since the start of the war in Iran, the expected 1-year Federal Reserve interest rate has risen by about 60 basis points, roughly half of Federal Reserve officials believe that a rate hike in 2026 may be appropriate, and European Central Bank (ECB) has already raised rates.As non-interest-bearing monetary assets, gold and Bitcoin compete with fiat currencies, and rising real interest rates on fiat currencies increase the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and gold, thereby suppressing demand. Bitcoin It serves a dual purpose in a portfolio: on one hand, it is a scarce digital commodity that can act as a long-term store of value; on the other hand, it is a public blockchain asset that provides exposure to the long-term growth of the crypto industry. Therefore, the role of Bitcoin in a portfolio is similar to, but not entirely equivalent to, that of gold and growth stocks.Zach Pandl noted that if the likelihood of interest rate hikes decreases—in line with Grayscale’s base-case scenario—Bitcoins may catch up to the performance of stocks.