Svmuu News: CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoins have exhibited a clear pattern of “diminishing returns on capital” across historical bull and bear cycles; as the asset base expands, the price increase generated per unit of new capital continues to decline:
In the 2011 cycle, approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows drove Bitcoin up by about 55,000%;
In the 2015 cycle, approximately $69 billion in net inflows corresponded to a price increase of about 10,000%;
In the 2018 cycle, approximately $365 billion in net inflows corresponded to a price increase of about 2,000%;
The current cycle, which began in 2022, has attracted approximately $697 billion in capital, but the price increase has been about 689%.
The data is based on “Realized Capitalization,” which is calculated using the last transaction price of each coin and is used to approximate the actual scale of capital inflows.Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, stated that for Bitcoin to experience another parabolic rally, it may require more than $1 trillion in new capital inflows to further solidify its status as a macro asset—rather than merely an ETF-driven trading asset.
Ki Young Ju also pointed out that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has recently experienced net outflows, and structural market demand remains in a transition phase. Analysts believe this trend reflects a natural decline in the marginal returns of Bitcoins as their market capitalization expands; unless there is significant institutional capital inflows, it will be difficult for high-multiple growth to replicate the performance seen in earlier cycles. (CoinDesk)