Svmuu News: Jukan, an analyst at Citrini, published an analysis noting that, in addition to being affected by the liquidation of leveraged positions, the recent decline in memory chip stocks may also reflect the market pricing in, in advance, the pressure expected from future supply expansion. Even if the global memory shortage persists through 2027, most research firms and industry observers still expect supply-demand tensions to begin easing in 2028. As memory manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix announce large-scale wafer fab expansion plans, the market may have already begun to price in the impact of new capacity coming online after 2028.
There is a general rule in the traditional memory industry: memory stock prices typically reflect the peak in memory prices about two quarters in advance. However, in the new AI-driven cycle, the market may be pricing in future supply-and-demand changes even further in advance—for example, three or even four quarters ahead. The AI era may bring new dynamics; the logic of “price declines leading to revenue declines” seen in traditional memory cycles may not fully apply to the AI infrastructure market.
Jukan noted that the key difference lies in the fact that, in the AI era, “demand growth driven by price declines” may cushion the impact of the downward trend in the storage price cycle. If this logic holds, future profit volatility for storage companies may be lower than in past cycles, which could also support higher valuation levels.