Svmuu News: Jiang Zhuoer posted on X, stating that the market is currently overlooking a massive “gray rhino” risk—namely, the continued rise in international oil prices. He pointed out that Brent crude prices have rebounded to around $95. Given that neither the U.S. nor Iran is currently capable of completely resolving the conflict in the short term, and that it is unlikely they will reach a compromise on the issue of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation may remain deadlocked for an extended period, making further increases in oil prices almost inevitable.

Jiang Zhuo’er believes that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted, it will have catastrophic consequences for the global economy. He also noted that global commercial and government strategic crude oil reserves have been significantly depleted, and total U.S. crude oil inventories (combining commercial stocks and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) have fallen to their lowest level since 1984. Should international oil prices break through the $100 mark again, market sentiment could rapidly deteriorate.