An analyst predicts that the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) will surpass $1 trillion in assets under management (AUM) again before the end of the year. The fund, which became the first ETF to cross the $1 trillion mark in early June before a market pullback, currently holds approximately $979 billion.

The prediction is based on two factors: consistent investor inflows, averaging nearly $14 billion per month in the first five months of 2026, and the potential for market appreciation. The fund needs to gain roughly 2% (or $21 billion) to reach the $1 trillion threshold, a move that could be achieved by a modest S&P 500 rally combined with ongoing inflows. The analyst notes that VOO's low expense ratio of 0.03% is a key draw for investors, despite concentration risk with over a third of its assets in its top 10 holdings, including 7.5% in Nvidia.