Goldman Sachs expects total US equity issuance to reach a record high of $700 billion in 2026, but believes demand will continue to outstrip supply, with the S&P 500 potentially surging to 8000 points.

John Flood, head of Americas equity execution services at Goldman Sachs, stated that despite widespread doubts in the market about whether record equity issuance can be absorbed, the firm expects total US equity issuance to reach a record $700 billion in 2026. This includes slightly over $225 billion in IPOs and approximately $450 billion in other offerings. However, this total represents only about 1% of the Russell 3000 index market capitalization, comparable to the 2015-2019 average. Goldman Sachs emphasized that it expects total US public market share buybacks to reach $1.4 trillion for the full year 2026, which would be sufficient to cover primary market issuance and offset potential supply from lock-up expirations. AI investment demand is the core driver of this wave of issuance, but Goldman Sachs believes that equity issuance is a "manageable headwind, not a market hurricane," and that corporate equity demand will continue to outweigh supply, with the S&P 500 index poised to surge to 8000 points.