Analysis indicates that the market currently anticipates a 53% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September, and recommends FDRR, a dividend fund designed to navigate a rising rate environment.

According to Yahoo Finance analysis, the market currently anticipates a 53% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its September meeting (Polymarket data), while futures markets are pricing in approximately 32%. Against this backdrop, the 10-year US government bond yield closed at 4.69% on August 6, 2026, near its 12-month high. The Federal Reserve has maintained its target interest rate at 3.75% since December 2025, following a 75 basis point rate cut. The analysis recommends the Fidelity Dividend ETF for Rising Rates (FDRR), which screens for stocks with returns positively correlated to the 10-year US government bond yield in a rising rate environment. FDRR's top holdings include NVIDIA (8.513%), Apple (7.072%), and Google (6.233%). The fund closed at $69.86 on August 7, 2026, with a year-to-date increase of 15.91%, a 28.54% gain over the past year, and a five-year return of 86.14%.