The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated on Wednesday that it has lowered its 2026 global oil supply forecast to 102 million barrels per day (bpd), a year-on-year decrease of 4.3 million bpd. This is due to a deepening global oil market deficit caused by the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, which hindered the recovery of production in the Gulf region, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz once again, and resuming attacks on oil tankers and energy infrastructure. This downward revision is larger than the 3.7 million bpd supply decrease predicted in its July report. The IEA now expects the global oil market to face a deficit of 1.8 million bpd in the third quarter of 2026, more than double the 800,000 bpd shortage predicted last month. The tight supply has also dragged down demand, with the IEA forecasting a contraction of global oil demand by 1.6 million bpd in 2026, a larger decrease than the 1 million bpd predicted in July.