CoinDesk analysis suggests that while institutions like asset manager Bitwise predict Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million within a decade, comparing Bitcoin's price to the 30-year U.S. government bond yield (considered a risk-free rate) reveals these targets might be overly optimistic. The 30-year government bond yield has now surpassed 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007, making non-yielding assets like Bitcoin relatively less attractive. Furthermore, the ratio of Bitcoin to the 30-year government bond yield failed to break its 2021 high during the 2025 bull market and completed a "head and shoulders top" breakdown in technical analysis, signaling that Bitcoin may face further losses relative to the long-term cost of capital.