The ETF's year-to-date surge, with its price near $179, is attributed to Middle East supply disruptions that halted about 10.5 million barrels per day of Gulf production in April. However, the EIA forecasts Brent crude to fall to $89/barrel in Q4 2026 and $79 in 2027 as Middle East output recovers, potentially unwinding XOP's gains. The pace of tanker traffic returning through the Strait of Hormuz is identified as the key variable for XOP's future performance.