Morgan Stanley: U.S. federal debt exceeding $40 trillion will "put the brakes" on the economy, but "won't collapse" because household and corporate balance sheets remain healthy.
Andrew Sheets, Head of Global Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley, stated in his latest report that despite the US federal debt increasing by $20 trillion over the past decade and surpassing $40 trillion, the continuous improvement in corporate and household balance sheets constitutes a crucial buffer against shocks. The report suggests that the real risk lies in the rebalancing of asset allocation, specifically when bond yields become attractive enough to substantially compete with stocks for investors, a shift that has not yet occurred. The firm is bullish on UK inflation-linked bonds and the Australian dollar, while maintaining a relatively cautious stance on the US dollar.
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