Prediction market traders on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are skeptical that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's bond interventions will significantly lower yields. Speculators on Kalshi see a 56% chance that the 10-year Treasury note yield will end 2026 above or at 4.75%, while Polymarket traders place two-in-three odds that the 10-year yield will cross 4.8% at some point in 2026. The 10-year yield was trading at about 4.70% as of Monday midday. The Treasury Department recently announced it would double buybacks of U.S. debt to stabilize the bond market, and yields initially fell but later rose again.