In their latest report published on August 25, the team led by Citi's Chief Analyst Arkady Gevorkyan maintained a bullish stance on grains and oilseeds, and comprehensively raised price targets for corn, wheat, and soybeans. The report points out that multiple supply risks, including the continuous strengthening of Super El Niño, escalating disruptions in Black Sea shipping, expanding biofuel demand, and high fertilizer and energy costs, are converging to tighten the global agricultural supply-demand balance. It is anticipated that food inflation pressure will sharply increase in the next 6 to 12 months.

The report emphasizes that data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows the probability of a strong El Niño event has exceeded 90%, with a 69% chance of surpassing the intensity of all El Niño events since 1950 during the October-December period, potentially becoming one of the strongest El Niño events in modern climate history. Furthermore, the escalation of attacks on Black Sea ports and grain terminals due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could delay or displace 5% to 9% of global wheat exports and 2% to 4% of corn exports. High fertilizer and energy costs are also squeezing yields, while the intensive implementation of global biofuel policies provides structural support for corn and soybean demand.