HSBC's latest report indicates that, influenced by the Middle East conflict, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the strengthening El Niño phenomenon, a global grain supply-demand deficit is projected for the 2026/27 season, marking the first such deficit since 2020/21, and it is expected to be the largest since 2006/07. As of July, grain prices have risen by 22% year-on-year, with preliminary data for August showing a further increase to 30%; cocoa prices have surged by 50% in recent months.

The latest forecast from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows a more than 90% probability of a "super strong" El Niño occurring in the autumn and winter of 2026, potentially setting an extreme event record since 1950. JPMorgan Chase previously warned that global food inflation is expected to accelerate from 2.8% in the first half of 2026 to 5% in the first half of 2027. Furthermore, intense attacks on Black Sea ports have resulted in Ukraine's August grain shipments being only 20% of its potential export capacity, causing Chicago wheat futures prices to soar to a two-year high.