As of Thursday afternoon, prediction market traders put the probability of Warsh mentioning "bond market" at the Jackson Hole annual meeting early Friday at just 16%, "yield curve" at 8%, and "rate cut" also at 8%. These terms might be relevant given last week's surge in US government bond yields and the Treasury's decision to double long-dated government bond buybacks to at least $4 billion. Data from Kalshi's "mention markets" suggest Warsh is likely to avoid discussing the bond market, even though rising yields impact the Federal Reserve's September decision. One of Warsh's core objectives as chairman is to control inflation at the 2% target level. Prediction markets also show Warsh has a nearly 90% chance of mentioning "inflation" and over 70% chance of mentioning "task force."