Goldman Sachs: Oil Exports Through Strait of Hormuz Recover to Two-Thirds of Pre-War Levels, But 5 Million Barrels Per Day Are "Dark Fleet" Flows
Goldman Sachs strategists Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and her team informed clients on Wednesday that Gulf oil exports have rebounded to 15-16 million barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels. However, visible shipping data only shows a flow of approximately 10 million barrels per day, leaving a 5 million barrel gap that the team refers to as a "surge in dark ship traffic." This involves tankers circumventing tracking and interception by turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS). Goldman Sachs noted that Trump administration officials expressed optimism this week that flows have recovered, but their data reveals the actual situation is far more complex than the official narrative. The surge in dark shipping may also lead to an underestimation of global crude oil inventories. Goldman Sachs' revised estimates suggest global visible inventories are about 39 million barrels higher than original readings for the same period, implying that the actual supply-demand balance in the oil market may be looser than apparent data indicates. Brent crude prices have currently risen to $95 per barrel.
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