The US August CPI data, set to be released next Friday (September 12), will directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at this month's meeting. BofA Securities predicts that the core CPI for August will rise by 0.22% month-over-month, with the annual rate increasing to 3.4%. They believe this level is sufficient to support another rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Citi, on the other hand, expects core CPI to increase by only 0.184% month-over-month, with the annual rate falling to 2.3%. If this materializes, it would be the lowest since April 2021, which would be enough for most officials to choose to keep interest rates unchanged.

Analysis indicates that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is a crucial swing vote for the September meeting's rate hike decision, and his stance will depend on the August inflation data. Additionally, strong August non-farm payroll data (162,000 new jobs, far exceeding expectations) and anticipated rebound in energy prices also provide strong support for Federal Reserve hawks. If CPI data comes in hotter than expected, some analysts warn that the Federal Reserve might be forced to adopt a more aggressive tightening path, pushing interest rates above 5%, which would lead to significant downward pressure on US stocks.