Goldman Sachs partner Mark Wilson analyzed: Global bond markets continue to be under pressure, with Japan's 10-year government bond yield hitting a new high since 1996, the UK's 30-year government bond yield touching a 1998 high, and the US stock market's VIX "fear index" falling to a low point during Donald Trump's second term.
In his latest "Weekly Mash" report, Goldman Sachs partner Mark Wilson pointed out a core contradiction in the current market: global bond markets continued to be under pressure during the Labor Day long weekend, with Japan's 10-year government bond yield rising to its highest level since 1996, and the UK's 30-year government bond yield touching 1998 highs. At the same time, the VIX index, which measures fear in the US stock market, fell to its lowest level since Donald Trump's second term (excluding the Christmas holiday), while the MSCI World Index has gained 13% year-to-date, less than 1% away from its historical high. He believes that the "resilience" narrative in the stock market masks the reality of quietly contracting valuation multiples under the pressure of continuously rising yields, and that the market has not yet fully priced in changes in discount rates. Wilson outlined the current opportunity and risk landscape around four major themes, warning that the generational highs in Japanese and UK government bond yields are not merely "ambience" to be ignored, and that the low VIX might simply mean the market has not yet found enough reasons to panic, rather than risks having dissipated.
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Source:华尔街见闻 · Source Link
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