Central banks are increasingly watching refining margins, or “crack spreads,” as fuel shortages push gasoline and diesel prices higher. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that refined fuel prices may provide a better inflation signal than crude oil alone. The Bank of England estimates that higher energy costs could add 0.4 percentage points to inflation in the second half of 2026, as wars in Iran and Ukraine have disrupted refining and exports, sharply widening diesel margins.