Analysts Debate AI Chip Cycle: Ben Bajarin Sees Tight Supply Until 2028, Jay Goldberg Warns of Potential Price Collapse Due to Oversupply
On September 9, tech analysts Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg debated the AI chip cycle on an industry podcast. Ben Bajarin believes that 2027 will be the most extreme "bottleneck" for industry-wide supply constraints, and after new capacity is massively released in 2028, continuously expanding AI demand will keep supply and demand in a slightly tight state, without a cliff-edge surplus. Jay Goldberg, however, warned that once the massive capacity being simultaneously advanced by companies such as TSMC, Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix floods the market in 2028, it will trigger a collapse in pricing power and a mean reversion of gross margins. Although the two have fundamental disagreements on the outcome in 2028, they both agreed that the era of "blindly buying AI supply chain stocks for massive gains" over the past two years has ended, and investors must use more stringent standards to identify core assets with true cross-cycle pricing resilience.
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Source:华尔街见闻 · Source Link
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