Wallstreetcn analysis indicates that the US bond market is flashing continuous warnings, with the 10-year Treasury yield approaching the critical 5% mark. Rising oil prices are fueling inflation expectations, and the VIX index has seen a significant jump this week. The market's most feared "nightmare scenario" is gradually moving from hypothetical to reality.

The 10-year Treasury yield has broken through the 4.8% resistance level and is moving towards the critical psychological threshold of 5%. If it firmly holds above 5%, it will exit its multi-year trading range. The explosive rise in oil prices has led to market discussions about the possibility of hitting $120, with agricultural product prices also rising, exacerbating inflationary pressures. The VIX index has risen significantly this week, and the options market is aggressively re-evaluating the pricing of downside tail risk, leading to a surge in demand for low-Delta protection. Goldman Sachs analyst models show that the current technical deterioration is consistent with a VIX level near 25, while the VIX is currently still around 18, suggesting further room for volatility to increase. The resilience of tech stocks and the accumulation of short positions provide a hedging force, with Nasdaq short positions increasing by approximately 35% since mid-June, and institutional investors generally maintaining a cautious wait-and-see approach.