Citigroup Research analysts Alex Saunders and Vinh Vo noted in their quantitative macro strategy report published on September 11 that although their macro model remains broadly in the "normal" range, strengthening inflation momentum, a modest decline in economic surprise indices, and a slight tightening of financial conditions have significantly increased the similarity between the current macro environment and the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle from 1988 to 1989. During that period, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 16 times, with the federal funds rate target ultimately increasing to 9.8125%.

The report suggests that the current macro state exhibits symptoms of an "overheated economy," where both growth and inflation indicators are slightly above their long-term averages. At the asset allocation level, the model further increased its overweight allocation to equities to 4.0%, favoring emerging markets and U.S. equities, and shorting European, Japanese, and UK equities. In bonds, the model overweights Japanese and UK duration and maximizes short positions in U.S. Treasuries. For commodities, energy is currently the strongest expected performing asset, with the model heavily overweighting energy. In foreign exchange, the U.S. dollar replaced the Japanese yen as the preferred currency, due to waning market enthusiasm for the yen and comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding Japanese intervention.