Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase anticipate a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with the futures market pricing in a probability of approximately 90%. Analysis indicates that capital-intensive AI companies CoreWeave and IREN will face differing interest rate risks as a result.

CoreWeave's latest $2.6 billion delayed draw loan carries an interest rate of SOFR plus 5.50%, meaning its interest expenses on floating-rate borrowings will increase if policy rates are raised. The company projects capital expenditures of $35 billion to $39 billion in 2026, with its $104 billion order backlog and customer-backed financing serving as primary buffers. Based on its floating-rate debt as of June 30, every 100 basis point increase in interest rates would raise its six-month interest expense by approximately $61 million.

IREN, on the other hand, is increasingly utilizing fixed-rate or hedged project-specific financing, including facilities tied to contract deployments. Its $9.7 billion agreement with Microsoft and $3.4 billion contract with NVIDIA mitigate demand risk for existing capacity. However, its vulnerability lies in the future, as management has discussed investing up to $30 billion by mid-2027, and even if existing loans are fixed, higher benchmark rates will increase the cost of refinancing and future campus construction.