Goldman Sachs warns: Soaring AI energy demand is equivalent to "rebuilding Japan," with turbines, transformers, and political resistance becoming the biggest bottlenecks.
Goldman Sachs' latest research warns that from early 2024 to the end of 2030, the additional electricity consumption from AI will be equivalent to the total electricity consumption of Japan, the world's fifth-largest power consumer. The report points out that the power demand from AI-driven data centers is expanding faster than expected, and the core contradiction on the supply side has shifted from "is there enough power" to "can it be built in time." Shortages of turbines, transformers, transmission lines, and skilled workers, as well as local political resistance, are becoming the real bottlenecks constraining supply delivery. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for US electricity demand growth from a compound annual growth rate of 3.2% to 3.5%. Its forecast for US data center electricity demand in 2030 has been significantly increased from 83 gigawatts to 108 gigawatts, while the projected increase in global data center electricity demand from 2025 has jumped from 117% to 170%. Capital expenditure forecasts for hyperscale cloud service providers have been simultaneously revised upwards: from $1.2 trillion to $1.7 trillion in 2027, and from $1.5 trillion to $2.1 trillion in 2029. The report emphasizes that there are currently over 300 local and regional moratoriums, and if the AI and power industries fail to develop a coordinated public communication strategy, political factors will become the ultimate hard constraint.
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Source:华尔街见闻 · Source Link
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