CoinDesk analysis points out that Bitcoin's current ~40% drawdown from its October high of $126,000 parallels its position before the Fed's first rate hike in March 2022. Following that 2022 hike, Bitcoin saw an 18% relief rally over 12 days before falling 50%. This raises questions whether a similar relief rally could precede a prolonged bear market, though the analysis notes limited historical evidence and broader market turmoil in 2022.