Citi Research: The Federal Reserve's hawkish rate hike in September exceeded expectations, with the DXY technically confirming a double bottom pointing to 101.15.
Citi Research noted that the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting sent a strong hawkish signal, leading the market to price in another rate hike of approximately 13 basis points in October. The DXY's technical pattern has strengthened accordingly, completing a double bottom confirmation with a target of 101.15 and a key resistance band between 102.20 and 102.50. Citi believes that the combination of high yields and equity pressure is historically the most bullish macro combination for the dollar, and EUR/USD may retest the 1.13 low. The report also cautioned that geopolitical conflicts, political pressure from the approaching midterm elections, and the market having already priced in much of the FOMC's actions could lead to a rapid reversal of the situation.
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