Wall Street's three major banks predict the U.S. Treasury will issue approximately $1 trillion in short-term Treasury bills over the next year, posing a dilemma for Scott Bessent's policy.

Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs latest forecasts indicate that the U.S. Treasury will net borrow approximately $1 trillion through the issuance of short-term Treasury bills in the current fiscal year ending September 2027, nearing historical highs. This scale is notably higher than the official target of "around 20% over the long term" set by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is attempting to suppress long-term interest rates by expanding long-term Treasury buybacks, while his Treasury Department continues to rely on short-term debt to meet record borrowing demands. This has sparked widespread market concerns about the accumulation of interest rate risk and refinancing risk, also leading to questions about the consistency of Bessent's own policies. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to a multi-year high of approximately 4.75%, with investors focusing on short-term Treasuries, betting that the Federal Reserve will ultimately win the fight against inflation.