Nomura's expert call summary on AI infrastructure service providers, held on September 22, indicates a structural supply gap for 1.6T optical module Digital Signal Processors (DSPs). This is primarily due to insufficient 3nm process capacity and low yield rates. Experts anticipate this shortage will persist until at least the second half of 2027.

Specifically, demand for 1.6T DSPs is projected to exceed 20 million units in 2026, while actual shipments are expected to be only 16 million to 17 million units, resulting in a shortfall of approximately 3 million to 4 million units. In 2027, the supply-demand imbalance is expected to widen further, with demand climbing to 60 million to 70 million units, but supply only reaching 40 million to 50 million units, expanding the deficit to over 20 million units. The high-end DSP market is characterized by a concentrated competitive landscape and moderately declining prices, driven by the high cost of advanced process wafer fabrication, a customer verification cycle of approximately two years, and complex algorithm thresholds.