Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos: The market's AI narrative pendulum has "swung too far," and potential issues within the AI ecosystem are the biggest tail risk.
George Saravelos, Global Head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, noted in a report after client visits that the market narrative on AI has shifted from "AI deflation and controllable US Treasury yields" to "AI bursting the bond market, with Scott Bessent unable to control long-term interest rates." However, he believes the narrative pendulum has "swung too far," and the most underestimated tail risk in the current market is a problem within the AI ecosystem itself, such as a security incident, a failed IPO, or revenue falling short of expectations. Saravelos stated that if this risk materializes, it would significantly suppress the dollar and strongly support the bond market, but market pricing reflects almost none of this.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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