UBS noted in a research report published on October 12 that gold has fallen by approximately 5% since early September. This decline is attributed to stronger-than-expected economic data and persistent inflationary pressures, which have reignited market expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. During this period, the US 10-year government bond yield climbed above 5.3%, and gold prices fell to approximately $4140/ounce. The bank believes that the recent hawkish repricing is largely reflected in gold prices, and there is significant upside potential for gold if the labor market continues to cool and US government bond yields retreat from their highs. In three similar historical scenarios, gold prices rose by approximately 5.9%, 11.4%, and 14.4%, respectively. Technically, $3990 to $4030/ounce is a critical near-term support level; if gold prices effectively break above $4280 to $4320/ounce, it will confirm the continuation of the upward trend.