According to CNBC, President Donald Trump announced a diesel deal with Russia, but analysts believe its impact on fuel prices will be limited. Russia will immediately supply 300,000 metric tons of diesel to the global market, Trump stated on Truth Social last Friday. Goldman Sachs estimated on Monday that the diesel Russia plans to release in October and November would only lower wholesale diesel prices by $1 to $2 per barrel on the U.S. Gulf Coast and in Europe. Neil Atkinson, former head of the International Energy Agency's oil industry and markets division, described the volume of diesel as "very, very small."

Russia plans to supply an additional 500,000 metric tons in November, followed by another 1 million metric tons, and later release 3 million metric tons depending on refinery conditions. If the entire agreement is executed, the total of 4.8 million metric tons of diesel (approximately 35.76 million barrels) would only be equivalent to about 10 days of U.S. domestic demand, or slightly more than one day of global demand. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the U.S. is a net exporter of diesel and does not need Russian supplies. Kpler analysts said Russian diesel might help alleviate competition for U.S. diesel in countries like Brazil and Turkey.

Diesel futures showed little reaction to the deal on Monday, closing down about 1 cent, but rose on Tuesday. The market generally views this deal more as verbal intervention by Trump to address fuel price pressure ahead of the midterm elections. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on Monday that Russia had violated the energy ceasefire agreement announced by Trump on Sunday. The average U.S. diesel price was $6.28 per gallon on Tuesday, up 72% from the same period last year.