GMO Co-Head of Asset Allocation, Ben Inker: US stock AI bubble may burst in the next 12-18 months, with new equity supply potentially reaching 7.5% of total market capitalization.
Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, an asset management firm with over $80 billion under management, recently published a research report and appeared on a podcast, predicting that an unprecedented wave of equity supply will burst the AI bubble within the next 12 to 18 months. He pointed out that IPOs and subsequent lockup expirations from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will inject new stock supply equivalent to 6% to 7.5% of the total U.S. stock market capitalization into the market within approximately 12 months. Inker stated that historically, for every 1% increase in new IPOs as a percentage of total market capitalization, the U.S. stock market underperformed by about 4% that year. If the new supply reaches 6%, market returns would be 24% lower than normal. He further warned that if AI hashrate simultaneously shifts from structural scarcity to overcapacity, it could lead to widespread defaults on the credit side, corporate bankruptcies, and market declines of 35% to 50%.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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