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Prediction Markets See Surging Volume Ahead of Midterms, as CFTC Clarifies Regulatory Stance
Combined monthly trading volume on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket more than doubled from $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July, with over $30 million traded on House and Senate races by July. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) withdrew a 2024 proposal that would have classed election contracts as gaming, and in June published a proposed framework under which elections would not count as gaming. Former NBC News political director Chuck Todd will host the NEXTPredict summit on October 22-23, focusing on whether markets or pollsters are a better predictor of election outcomes. Morgan Stanley also studied Kalshi trades, finding prices closely tracked outcomes.
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