Nomura: AI Capital Expenditure Faces a Dilemma, Market Experiences Cross-Asset Deleveraging
Nomura Securities cross-asset strategist Charlie McElligott noted in a report that the AI investment narrative is facing an inherent contradiction, as hyperscale cloud providers are caught in a dilemma regarding capital expenditures: if they accelerate, free cash flow will be pressured; if they decelerate, demand prospects become questionable. Over the past week, negative sentiment emerged in the AI ecosystem, leading to large-scale forced liquidations that spread to the U.S. Treasury, foreign exchange, and commodity markets, triggering systemic deleveraging across asset classes. Specifically, CTA trend strategies have unwound approximately $68 billion in U.S. Treasury futures shorts and $38 billion in short-term interest rate futures shorts over the past two weeks. Despite this, there are contrarian positioning signals in the options market, such as large call option buying activity in companies like CoreWeave, Nebius Group, and Micron, indicating that some capital still maintains bets on a medium-term rebound in the AI sector.
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Disclaimer: This content reflects the author's personal views only and does not constitute investment advice.
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