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Federal Reserve
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Analysis: The Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates on hold, as inflation remains an unpredictable economic variable
Svmuu News: Federated Hermes fund manager Karen Manna stated in a report that the firm continues to believe the Federal Reserve will largely hold rates steady, while inflation remains one of the most
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QCP Capital: Divergence Between Surface-Level Narratives and Underlying Data in the Oil, Interest Rate, and Crypto Markets
Svmuu News: QCP Capital released a macroeconomic report stating that the most notable feature of this week’s market was growing divergence, with situations arising in the oil, interest rate, and crypt
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Natixis expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026
Svmuu News: Christopher Hodge, former chief economist at the New York Fed and chief U.S. economist at Natixis, said that Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish start could create a “credibility trap.” Christopher
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The Federal Reserve's use of overnight reverse repurchase agreements fell to $151 million on Wednesday.
Svmuu News: The Federal Reserve's use of its overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) program stood at $151 million on Wednesday, down from $278 million on the previous trading day.
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There is an 88.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July.
Svmuu News: According to CME’s “FedWatch” data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basi
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Federal Reserve Governor Cook: Ready to Take Action If Inflation Doesn't Slow Down Soon
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Governor Cook said Wednesday that it would be prudent to wait for inflation to ease for a while, but that the Fed is prepared to take action if inflation does not slow down
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Warsh said that Donald Trump had no impact on the Fed's policy
Svmuu News: When asked if he had spoken with Donald Trump, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh said he had “no comment” and did not wish to share the details of their conversation. He said that President Dona
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Federal Reserve Chair: AI Is Expected to Drive Up Observable Price Levels Over the Next 12 Months
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Chair Wash, testifying before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs at a hearing on the “Federal Reserve’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report,” stated
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Warsh: Recent inflation data do not fully reflect underlying inflation trends
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh stated that recent inflation data do not perfectly reflect underlying inflation trends. (Jin Shi)
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Fed's Williams: Inflation Remains Too High; Expected to Return to 2% Target in 2028
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve’s Williams stated that inflation is undoubtedly still too high at around 4%, and that efforts must continue to bring it back down to the 2% target; the current monetary pol
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U.S. CPI Fell 0.4% Month-Over-Month in June; BTC Rose to $64,900
Svmuu News: U.S. CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month in June, marking the largest monthly decline since April 2020; the year-over-year rate dropped from 4.2% in May to 3.5%, below the expected 3.8%. Core C
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Director of the White House National Economic Council: Data Shows the Federal Reserve Has No Reason to Raise Interest Rates
Svmuu News: Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, stated that the data shows the Federal Reserve has no reason to raise interest rates; he believes Warsh will guide the Feder
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Analyst: If Oil Prices Stabilize, the U.S. Tech Sector May Benefit
Svmuu News: Patrick Munnelly of Tickmill Group noted in a report that the U.S. technology sector could benefit if oil prices stabilize and investors scale back their expectations for Federal Reserve i
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Svmuu Morning Brief
1. U.S. June unadjusted CPI annual rate: 3.5%, vs. expectations of 3.8% and a previous reading of 4.20%; 2. Changxin Technology: Offering price set at 8.66 yuan per share; online and offline subscript
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CICC: We maintain our baseline forecast that the Fed will not raise interest rates this year, but the threshold for a rate hike has already been lowered.
Svmuu News CICC: According to a research report, the U.S. CPI for June fell 0.4% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, while the year-over-year increase slowed to 3.5%; core CPI showed zero
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Federal Reserve Governor: The Fed Should Not Overly Interfere with Banks’ Adoption of New Technologies Such as AI
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that lenders have a better understanding of the risks posed by innovation and should be allowed to decide for themselves when to adopt new technologi
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Kevin Warsh: The Federal Reserve Is Reluctant to Bail Out Cryptocurrencies or Stablecoins
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at a House Financial Services Committee hearing on July 14 that the Fed has no intention of providing a bailout if a run occurs in the cryptocur
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Federal Reserve Chair Warsh: Will Firmly Support the 2% Inflation Target
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh said he will firmly support the 2% inflation target. (Jin Shi)
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June CPI data support the market view that the likelihood of a Fed rate hike is overestimated
Svmuu News: Tony Welch of SignatureFD said the market has overestimated the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Following weak CPI inflation data in June, the futures market has priced in a low
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Federal Reserve Chair Warsh: Don’t assume everything is fine just because today’s CPI report is out
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh stated that today’s data does not mean “the job is done.” We should not assume that everything is fine just because today’s CPI report has been released. Artifi
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Warsh: The two aspects of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate—price stability and maximum employment—are not in conflict with each other
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh outlined his views on the economy. Warsh stated that economic conditions are robust and financial markets appear to be functioning well, but the housing market
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Warsh: The Federal Reserve can start seriously considering when to begin purchasing Treasury debt
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh stated, “The Fed can begin to seriously consider when to purchase Treasury debt; I don’t think we can return to the 2006 level of our balance sheet.” (Jin Shi)
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Federal Reserve Chair: Does Not Want to Get Involved in Bailouts
Svmuu News: When asked whether he would bail out cryptocurrencies or stablecoins, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said he did not want to get involved in bailouts and hoped to be in a position wh
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Warsh Emphasizes Monetary Policy Independence and Reaffirms Commitment to the 2% Inflation Target
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh reiterated his commitment not to provide forward guidance on interest rates during a hearing on Tuesday, with his testimony making almost no mention of interest
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Arthur Hayes: AI Giant Equity Dilution May Weigh on Stock Prices, Short-Term Bearish for Bitcoin, While Central Bank Bailouts Hold Long-Term Promise
Arthur Hayes: AI Giant Equity Dilution May Weigh on Stock Prices, Short-Term Bearish for Bitcoin, While Central Bank Bailouts Hold Long-Term Promise
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Donald Trump's special committee hearing regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has been postponed to December 14.
The special committee hearing regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, initiated by Donald Trump, has been postponed to December 14, White House officials revealed on Wednesday. Donald Trump esta
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Nick Timiraos: A Democratic Senate would pose the strongest check on Donald Trump's reshaping of the Federal Reserve
Nick Timiraos: A Democratic Senate victory would serve as the most powerful check on Donald Trump's reshaping of the Federal Reserve. If any Federal Reserve Board of Governors vacancies arise in the f
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Lombard Odier Economists: A Democratic Senate Win Helps Reduce Uncertainty Around Fed Independence
According to Dow Jones Market Talk, Samy Chaar, Chief Economist at Lombard Odier, believes that a Democratic victory in the Senate would provide a check on Donald Trump's key institutional personnel n
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According to a Federal Reserve survey on November 2, banks tightened their lending standards for non-bank financial institutions, which could restrict financing for Bitcoin investors.
According to a lending survey released by the Federal Reserve on November 2, banks tightened their lending standards for non-bank financial institutions, while demand from commercial lenders and priva
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U.S. Treasuries fell due to strong U.S. job openings data and oil price volatility.
US job openings data exceeded economists' expectations, indicating a still robust labor market, which could give the Federal Reserve room to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Meanwhile, oil pric
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U.S. factory activity strengthened in October, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 59.0, which could complicate Bitcoin's hopes for interest rate cuts.
U.S. factory activity strengthened in October, with the ISM Production Index rising to 59.0, potentially complicating Bitcoin's hopes for rate cuts. A report released by the Institute for Supply Manag
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Bitcoin Trades Near $77,500 as US Midterm Voting Begins, Influenced by Binance Hack and Macro Factors
Bitcoin traded near $77,500 on Tuesday morning as polls opened for the U.S. midterm elections, down about 0.6% on the day. The price action is pressured by factors including a record $6.3 billion Bina
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Nick Timiraos reposts a 2000 news article: Tech bubble executives ignored rate hike risks, companies went bankrupt nine months later.
Nick Timiraos reposted an old news story from 2000, recalling the tale of Sy Picon during the dot-com bubble. In January 2000, The Wall Street Journal reported that Sy Picon, founder of Sy Picon, a di
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US Treasuries Rise, Yields Extend Slide as Oil Prices Tumble
US Treasuries rose, extending their biggest monthly advance in over two years, as tumbling oil prices eased concerns about inflation pressure potentially leading to additional Federal Reserve interest
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Citi FX traders see continued carry trade opportunities
Citigroup Inc.'s US currency desk expects the carry trade to keep offering opportunities for investors, even though the strategy may struggle to replicate a period of standout returns. Fuad Muvdi, hea
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh plans to reduce the number of interest rate votes to just six times per year starting in 2028, which economists say could delay relief for borrowers.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh announced plans to reduce the number of interest rate setting votes over the next two years. Specifically, in 2027, one of the Federal Reserve's eight meetings will not
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S&P 500 historically sees strong gains after midterm elections, averaging 13.7% one year later
A CNBC analysis of S&P 500 returns from 1980 through 2024 shows the index rose an average of 13.7% one year after midterm elections, with positive returns in 91% of cases. The S&P 500 was up after all
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OPEC+ maintained its oil production targets, which could exacerbate inflation concerns and limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing, posing a new macro test for Bitcoin.
OPEC+ decided on November 1 to maintain its oil production targets for December, despite ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East, a move that could exacerbate inflationary pressures and strength
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Fed study finds Treasury dealers' financing burden can outlast their bond holdings, potentially impacting crypto credit markets
A Federal Reserve staff research, published on October 30, indicates that Treasury dealers may continue to finance customer bonds even after their own auction inventory has largely cleared. This linge
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Industry Insiders: Hong Kong Family Offices Still Interested in Overseas Real Estate Investment
According to the South China Morning Post, industry professionals interviewed believe that Hong Kong family offices' interest in real estate investments in Europe, the US, and Japan may not wane even
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US banks are owed $349B by private credit funds, as PIK interest payments rise to 10% of loans
US-domiciled private credit vehicles owed banks $349 billion at the end of 2025, according to a Federal Reserve report published on October 16, 2026. The report highlights that private credit funds ca
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U.S. stocks fell, Intel's share price plummeted, and Federal Reserve officials hinted at supporting interest rate hikes.
U.S. stocks fell, with Intel's share price dropping sharply, as Federal Reserve officials hinted at support for interest rate hikes, and a tech stock sell-off boosted U.S. Treasuries. Additionally, Bi
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Dallas Fed President Logan supported this week's Federal Reserve decision but still believes two more rate hikes are needed.
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan expressed support for the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates this week, but she continues to believe the Federal Reserve still needs to raise rates
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St. Louis Fed President Musalem Says More Rate Hikes Needed Soon to Bring Inflation to Target
St. Louis Fed President Musalem Says More Rate Hikes Needed Soon to Bring Inflation to Target
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St. Louis Fed President Musalem: It will be necessary to tighten monetary policy further "soon" to address high inflation and loose financial conditions.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday that he judges it necessary to tighten monetary policy further "soon." He noted that despite the Federal Reserve's decision this week to keep int
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St. Louis Fed President Musalem: Judged it necessary to further tighten monetary policy "soon," otherwise inflation could be too high unless the Federal Reserve raises rates further.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that he judges it necessary to "soon" further tighten monetary policy. He outlined two inflation scenarios, with the one he considers more likely being:
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Federal Reserve official Musalem called for prompt interest rate hikes to restore price stability, stating that inflation risks persist and financial conditions remain loose.
Federal Reserve official Alberto Musalem stated that given persistent and still upward-biased inflation risks, the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates again "soon" to restore price stability
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Federal Reserve insider Nick Timiraos: US Q3 employer benefit costs rose by 3.9%, exceeding wage growth of 3.1%, due to a surge in health insurance costs.
Federal Reserve insider Nick Timiraos, citing Employment Cost Index (ECI) data, noted that U.S. employer benefit costs surged by 3.9% in the third quarter, surpassing the 3.1% growth in wages and sala
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The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee Sounds AI Inflation Alarm: Can the Crypto Market Hold the $75,000 Mark?
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee warned that excessive market expectations for AI productivity could lead to rising inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and potentially even triggering stagflation. This warning has garnered attention across global financial markets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has experienced significant price volatility recently. After surpassing the $80,000 mark, the market is closely watching whether it can consistently hold the critical support level of $75,000 amidst macroeconomic headwinds.
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
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From Event to Your Screen: The Four Hurdles a Financial News Alert Must Clear
By the time the news is seen, half the market move has already happened. The problem often lies not in judgment, but in the sequence of information arrival. A financial news flash, from event occurrence to reaching the reader, must pass through four checkpoints: source coverage, deduplication and compression, traceable origin, and multi-language synchronization. This article breaks down this chain and provides three questions for ordinary investors to filter out noise.
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What is FED Coin? An Analysis of the Cryptocurrency of the Same Name and the Concept of the Federal Reserve's Digital Currency
The term "FED coin" carries a dual meaning within the cryptocurrency space: it can refer to low-market-cap cryptocurrencies circulating on the market, such as "Federal Reserve (FED)" or "FEDCOIN," which have no official affiliation with the Federal Reserve System and exhibit extremely low trading volumes; alternatively, it may informally refer to the concept of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) that the Federal Reserve is currently researching and exploring. This article will elaborate on the background, current status, and related developments of these two types of "FED coins" separately.
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Bitcoin Breaks $80,000: Buying Emerges Amid Volatile Federal Reserve Policy Expectations, Who's Positioning?
Bitcoin's price recently surged from around $63,000 in mid-August, briefly breaking above $81,000 on August 26, setting a multi-month high. This rally comes as market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy fluctuate; the CME tool still shows a high probability of maintaining current interest rates, but expectations for a rate hike within the year have increased. On-chain data indicates that large "whale" investors actively accumulated Bitcoin when it retested the $60,000 mark, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded strong net inflows, suggesting that institutional capital is a significant driver of this rebound.
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Bitcoin tops $80,000, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike pause grow, who is actively positioning?
As of August 25, 2026, Bitcoin's price surpassed $80,000, marking its best week since 2023. This strong rebound comes as market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in September are rising, with the probability of a pause in rate hikes briefly reaching 70%. Amid changing macroeconomic conditions and fluctuating ETF capital flows, large Bitcoin holders (whales) and institutional investors have emerged as the primary buying force, actively buying the dips and demonstrating a strategic willingness to allocate to scarce assets.
Federal Reserve
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