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Forecasting the market
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New address bets approximately $100,000 on "US will not enter Iran by March 31st"
Monitoring by Svmuu Seer Channel shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "US will enter Iran by March 31st", a newly created address (0x842ac0abb64acddb573b459a8f58f77e123092f5) purchased approx
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Market News: Gate Has Integrated Polymarket Services
According to the latest post by crypto industry KOL Zishi (@silverfang88) on social platform X, Gate may become the official partner exchange for Polymarket. He stated that this collaboration could fu
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Polymarket's "US-Iran Ceasefire by March 31st" Probability Briefly Surged to 54%, Then Fell Back to 16%
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of the Polymarket event "US and Iran will achieve a ceasefire before March 31st" briefly surged rapidly to 54%, before falling back to around 1
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Probability of "Crude oil reaching $105 by end of March" briefly drops to 22%, down about 43% intraday
Monitoring by Svmuu Seer Channel shows that the probability for the Polymarket event "Crude oil (CL) reaches $105 by the end of March" has dropped to 22%, with an intraday decline of 43%. The current
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Probability of "U.S. military entering Iran before the end of March" rapidly drops to 11%
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "U.S. military entering Iran before the end of March" has rapidly dropped from 24% to 11%. The market trading volume reached $16.2 million.
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Probability of US-Iran Ceasefire Before End of March Briefly Surges to 27%
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire before the end of March on Polymarket briefly surged to 27%, reaching a high of 44%, after having hovered around 10% for
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U.S. lawmakers to propose bipartisan bill banning sports predictions on prediction markets like Polymarket
Svmuu News U.S. lawmakers are set to introduce a bipartisan bill that would prohibit prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi from offering sports event predictions. (WSJ)
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Inflation concerns and rising interest rate expectations increase, probability of gold reaching $3,400/oz before end of June briefly rises to 38%
Svmuu Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "gold reaching $3,400 per ounce before the end of June" has significantly increased. The current probability is 38%, with the avera
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Probability of Gold Reaching $3,400 per Ounce by End of June Rises to 23.1%
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows a significant increase in the probability for the Polymarket prediction: "Will gold (GC) reach (a minimum of) $3,400 by the end of June?" The current probability is
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Account with Nearly $11 Million in Losses Buys $220,000 on NBA Regular Season Raptors Defeating Suns
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "NBA Regular Season Raptors vs. Suns", an account with over $11 million in losses (address: 0x492442eab586f242b53bda933fd5de
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Svmuu Morning Brief
1. An address associated with Erik Voorhees holds $249 million worth of ETH, rising to the 7th position in institutional holdings; 2. Fluid: Has secured short-term loans to cover 100% of the non-perfo
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Opinion: If a single trader can manipulate the outcome of a prediction market, that market should not be listed for trading
Svmuu News As prediction market platforms like Polymarket gain mainstream attention during the US election cycle and geopolitical events, their prices are increasingly cited as real-time signals. Howe
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Bounce launches its latest ecosystem product, Bounce Predict, positioned as a prediction market for auction scenarios
Svmuu reported that Bounce announced on platform X the official launch of Bounce Predict. The platform has currently opened a prediction market for Sotheby's upcoming auction, allowing users to use US
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Analysis: Bitcoin's Probability of Dropping to $45,000 This Year Now Exceeds That of Returning to $100,000; Short-Term Outlook is Weak
According to a post on X by prediction market Polymarket, the current probability of Bitcoin dropping to $45,000 within the year is now higher than that of it returning to $100,000, indicating a weak
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"Account with over $5 million in losses" spends $140,000 betting on G2 to defeat Gen.G, achieves 310% profit earning $434,300
Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Gen.G vs G2 match on Polymarket, account bossoskil1 (0xa5ea13a81d2b7e8e424b182bdc1db08e756bd96a) purchased 149,999.7 shares betting on G2 to win the first gam
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An account bought G2 to win the first game of the GEN vs G2 BO5 on Polymarket, making a profit of $128,900
Monitoring by the Seer Channel shows that in the GEN vs G2 match on Polymarket, the account bossoskil1 (0xa5ea13a81d2b7e8e424b182bdc1db08e756bd96a) bought 149,999.7 shares for G2 to win the first game
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Kalshi Surpasses Traditional Sports Betting Giants with $22 Billion Valuation
Svmuu News According to a post on X by prediction market data platform Predictefy, the valuation of prediction market platforms has now surpassed that of traditional sports betting companies. Kalshi c
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Polymarket to Announce Major News Next Monday
Svmuu News: Mustafa, an official team member of Polymarket, posted on X platform that major news will be announced next Monday. As the tweet content includes a coin symbol, the community speculates th
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U.S. CFTC Strengthens Oversight of Baseball Prediction Markets, Signs MOU with MLB
Svmuu News: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has officially announced the signing of its first-ever Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Major League Baseball (MLB). This agreeme
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New Address Bets Approximately $220,000 on "US Will Not Confirm Alien Existence Before 2027"
Monitoring by Seer Channel shows that in the prediction event "US will not confirm alien existence before 2027" on Polymarket, a newly created address (0xa1b2fd05bfd26b1b5ebfa39959ea7e6dc93140ca) inve
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U.S. Appeals Court Upholds Nevada Ban, Kalshi Prohibited from Offering Sports Prediction Contracts
Svmuu News The U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals has rejected an application from prediction market platform Kalshi, allowing Nevada regulators to enforce a temporary restraining order that prohibit
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Svmuu Noon News
1. Macquarie: The timing of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike remains unclear, with risks leaning towards an earlier move; 2. Polymarket adds weather prediction events for five Chinese cities inc
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Polymarket Launches "User Achieves Perfect NCAA March Madness Prediction," Kalshi Offers $1 Billion Prize for Perfect Predictor
Seer Channel monitoring shows that early this morning, Polymarket launched a new market titled "A user has achieved a perfect NCAA March Madness prediction," and currently, no one has placed a bet. As
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New Wallet Bets $44,000 on Iran Maintaining Control of Kharg Island This Month
Monitoring by Seer Channel shows that a newly created three-day-old wallet has placed a bet of $44,000 on Iran maintaining control of Kharg Island this month, with the current market probability at 91
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Bernstein forecasts Bitcoin to reclaim $125K by late 2026, reaching $300K in 2029
Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026 before reaching $300,000 in 2029 under its base case, with a bull case of $500,000.
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Kalshi traders see rising odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal, with a 68% chance before Jan. 1, 2028, following Iran's claim of a revenue-sharing deal with Oman.
Kalshi traders see rising odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal, with a 68% chance before Jan. 1, 2028, following Iran's claim of a revenue-sharing deal with Oman. Specifically, the od
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Ahead of NVIDIA's earnings report, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/nvidia-earnings-preview-what-expect-q4-2024-2024-02-20/">prediction market</a> traders are betting on the company to beat earnings expectations, with a 97% probability of success.
Traders on the online prediction market Polymarket believe there’s a 97% chance NVIDIA will beat Wall Street’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) expectations when it reports earnings after market clos
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Judge stays CFTC's civil case against US soldier over illegal Polymarket bet, regulator now seeks to weigh in on criminal proceedings
A judge stayed the CFTC’s civil case against a US soldier accused of using nonpublic information for a Polymarket bet, while the regulator is attempting to weigh in on the related criminal case.
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Needham Says Crypto Rally Has Strong Momentum, Prediction Market Kalshi Expects Bitcoin to Reach $90,000 This Year
Needham stated that the cryptocurrency rebound is strong, believing that the large-scale sell-off has largely ended and investor attention is shifting towards digital assets. The prediction market Kal
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Yahoo Finance Review: Gemini exchange offers bank-grade security and regulation, but has higher trading fees and limited coin selection
Reviews indicate that the Gemini exchange, founded by the Winklevoss brothers in 2014, operates as a New York trust company and is strictly regulated by state banking authorities, having reported no l
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Argus Downgrades DraftKings (DKNG) to Hold From Buy, Removes Price Target on Rising Costs, Tax Uncertainty
Argus noted that DraftKings' stock price has fallen by 43.22% over the past year, primarily due to high customer acquisition costs, rising state gaming taxes, and increased competition in prediction m
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Gemini partners with Apex Fintech Solutions to expand regulated crypto prediction markets
Under the planned tie-up, Gemini Titan will become the exclusive CFTC-regulated venue for crypto event contracts offered through Apex’s futures commission merchant to its brokerage customers. Gemini w
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Prediction Market Kalshi Faces Bans in Multiple US States Amid Legal Battles, While CFTC Defends Industry and Proposes New Rules
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is currently blocked for customers in Washington, Michigan, and Nevada, with Washington state authorities accusing the company of operating an illegal gambling bu
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Kalshi traders predict Bitcoin to end 2026 near current levels, around $75,000
Speculators on the prediction market platform estimate Bitcoin's price at the end of 2026 will be approximately $75,000, based on an average of contracts. This forecast suggests a slight decline from
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Prediction Markets Increasingly Skeptical on Near-Term US-Iran Nuclear Deal
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, currently prices the chances of a deal at 11% before March 1, 2027, 22% before January 1, 2028, and 35% before January 20, 2029.
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Research shows Bitcoin contracts on prediction market Kalshi increasingly lead Binance price discovery as BTC breaks $68,000
Research by financial forecasting firm Synth has found that the price movements of 15-minute Bitcoin contracts on Kalshi are increasingly predictive of subsequent Bitcoin price changes on Binance. Sin
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Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi Prediction Market Trading to Its ~3,000 Institutional Clients
The investment bank will help its institutional clients execute block event contracts on the CFTC-regulated Kalshi exchange. This move aims to increase institutional participation in prediction market
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South Korea moves to block Polymarket over gambling concerns
The Korea Media and Communications Commission stated that Polymarket's structure and operations amount to illegal gambling, despite its noncustodial design and smart contracts.
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JPMorgan Chase stopped providing banking services to prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns.
According to The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan Chase severed banking services with prediction market platform Polymarket in October last year, citing regulatory concerns. Despite the disruption in ban
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Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
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Prediction market Novig sues Wisconsin Attorney General in anticipation of state lawsuit over sports contracts
Prediction market platform Novig has filed a lawsuit against Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul and state gaming administrator John Dillett. The move is preemptive, as Novig anticipates Wisconsin wi
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Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting with cryptocurrency CEOs at the White House this Wednesday, sources say
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting at the White House this Wednesday that will bring together CEOs of cryptocurrency, prediction market, and artificial intelligence companies,
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Hyperliquid ETFs See Inflow Reversal Amidst Rising Perpetual Futures Competition
Funds including Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (HYPG), Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP), and 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) initially performed well, with HYPG nearing $113 million in AUM and the la
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Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
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Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
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Gemini shares slide after reporting $108 million loss; Winklevoss says 'we still have work to do'
The crypto exchange's prediction market volume nearly doubled as it continued expanding beyond traditional crypto trading.
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Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
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US CFTC to hold meeting on Aug. 20 to explore crypto, AI, and prediction market regulations with SEC, without waiting for CLARITY bill
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold a meeting for its Innovation Advisory Committee on Aug. 20 to address regulation related to crypto assets, artificial intelligence and pred
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Polymarket Once Reached a Weekly Trading Volume Milestone of $2.1 Billion: Exploring Its Rise as the World's Largest Blockchain Prediction Market
Decentralized prediction market Polymarket set a new record in March 2026 with over $2.1 billion in weekly trading volume, solidifying its position as the world's largest blockchain prediction market. Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, the platform operates on the Polygon network and uses USDC for transactions. Polymarket successfully operates compliantly in the United States by acquiring a CFTC-licensed entity and obtaining a "no-action" letter. Despite facing regulatory scrutiny and insider trading concerns, Polymarket has attracted prominent investors such as Intercontinental Exchange and established partnerships with X (Twitter) and Blockchain.com, continuously expanding its market influence.
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Gemini Exchange: The Path to Regulatory Compliance and Strategic Transformation
Founded in 2014 by the Winklevoss twins, the Gemini exchange is known for its strict regulatory compliance, holding a NYDFS trust charter and CFTC derivatives license. In 2025, Gemini filed for an IPO, and in 2026, it announced its "Gemini 2.0" strategy, shifting its focus to prediction markets and event contracts, while also adjusting its international market presence. Despite facing the Gemini Earn controversy and SEC charges, customer compensation has been completed. The platform is renowned for its security, but users have expressed negative feedback regarding its customer service and account issues.
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SX Network (SX) Token Analysis: Value, Applications, and Investment Considerations
SX Network is an EVM-compatible blockchain project focused on decentralized sports betting and prediction markets. Its native token, SX, plays a role in network governance, staking, paying gas fees, and obtaining fee discounts. SX Network has processed over $500 million in betting volume through its flagship dApp, SX Bet. However, as of the time of writing, the SX token has extremely low trading volume, and market liquidity faces challenges. This article will delve into SX's value proposition, technical features, tokenomics, and its potential investment risks.
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BOT (Bodhi) Coin Analysis: The Positioning and Current Status of Bodhi, a Decentralized Prediction Market Token
BOT, the native token of the Bodhi platform, aims to build a decentralized, transparent global prediction market. The project was originally developed on the Qtum blockchain, utilizing a replaceable oracle mechanism that allows holders to participate in arbitration, voting, and paying service fees. Bodhi was launched in 2017 with a total supply of 100 million BOT. As of recently, its market capitalization is approximately $1.67 million, with a unit price of about $0.04. Currently, the trading liquidity of BOT tokens is limited, and investors need to fully understand the risks involved.
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DPY Coin (Delphy): Project Overview and Current Market Status Analysis
DPY (Delphy) was once a mobile prediction market platform based on Ethereum, aiming to provide decentralized prediction services. However, as of August 2026, the market performance of DPY tokens has been extremely poor, with prices having fallen sharply from historical highs and market capitalization close to zero. Public information indicates that its trading liquidity has dried up, and it has been widely regarded as a high-risk asset, with almost no active trading market currently.
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POLK Coin Value Analysis: Is Polkamarkets' prediction market token worth long-term attention?
POLK is the native token of Polkamarkets, a decentralized prediction market platform initially based on Ethereum and later migrated to Polkadot. POLK is used for market creation, rewards, gamification, and transaction fee buybacks. As of August 11, 2026, POLK's market activity is extremely low, with both 24-hour trading volume and market capitalization at low levels, and a lack of a clear market narrative. Its long-term value depends on user adoption and ecosystem development, but it currently faces challenges of insufficient liquidity and limited market attention.
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Kalshi prediction market valuation soars to $22 billion, institutional demand drives strong growth
Prediction market platform Kalshi has reached a valuation of $22 billion after completing a $1 billion Series F funding round in May 2026, doubling its valuation in just five months. This significant growth is primarily attributed to accelerating institutional demand, with institutional trading volume surging by 800% over the past six months. As a platform federally regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi has captured over 90% of the U.S. prediction market share and plans to utilize the new capital to expand its product suite, including block trading and risk products, to meet growing market demand. Despite a brief slowdown in overall industry growth, Kalshi itself has demonstrated strong growth momentum.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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THALES Coin Trading Guide: Learn About Its Name Change and Where to Buy It
The THALES token is the governance token of the Thales Protocol, which focuses on prediction markets. It is important to note that the THALES token was recently renamed to Overtime (OVER) and migrated to a new contract. As a result, most trading activity in the market is now centered around the OVER token. This article will outline the historical trading activity of the THALES token and details regarding its rebranding, and will note that users may trade the token via decentralized exchanges (DEXs) or certain centralized platforms.
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How do I buy and sell POLK? On which major exchanges is the POLK token listed?
POLK is the native token of the Polkamarkets platform, a DeFi-based prediction market designed to provide decentralized cross-chain information exchange and event prediction capabilities. The POLK token is primarily issued on the Ethereum blockchain, and users can buy and sell it on centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX).This article will provide a detailed overview of how to trade POLK and the trading platforms where it is currently listed.
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What Is Augur (REP)? Analysis of REP Token Crowdfunding Price and Investment Prospects
Augur (REP) is a decentralized prediction market platform based on the Ethereum, which allows users to make predictions about real-world events. Its native token, REP, is primarily used for reporting and verifying event outcomes, ensuring the accuracy of the platform’s decentralized oracle.REP’s ICO was held in 2015 at a price of approximately $0.60, raising a total of about $5 million to $5.3 million. The investment outlook for REP depends on the adoption rate of the Augur platform, market competition, the regulatory environment, and its utility as a utility token—rather than as a passive investment.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
Forecasting the market
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