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Forecasting the market
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A user made a profit of $5.2 million betting on World Cup matches through Polymarket
Svmuu News: According to Lookonchain’s monitoring, LEEEROYJENKINS placed a total of $4.73 million on Polymarket, betting on Turkey not to win and Australia to cover a 1.5-point spread. Both bets were
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A savvy investor bet $1.1 million on Sweden to beat Tunisia in the World Cup group stage
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, in the Polymarket prediction event for "2026 World Cup Group F Matchday 1: Sweden vs. Tunisia," smart money generated total profits exceeding $1 mill
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Germany's 7-1 World Cup rout has sparked widespread attention, and interest in the Gate prediction market continues to soar
Svmuu News: On June 15, in the 2026 World Cup group stage, Germany crushed Curaçao 7-1, the Netherlands and Japan played out a thrilling 2-2 draw, while Ivory Coast edged out Ecuador 1-0. These matche
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According to predict.fun, the probability of "Ivory Coast finishing first in World Cup Group E" has risen to 22%, up 10% over the past 24 hours.
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel, in the "World Cup Group E Winner" prediction event on predict.fun, the probability of Ivory Coast finishing first in Group E has risen to 22%
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Perhaps due to the start of the World Cup, Polymarket's 24-hour revenue surpassed Hyperliquid's by $1.18 million.
Svmuu News: According to data from DefiLlama, Polymarket's 24-hour revenue reached $1.18 million, surpassing Hyperliquid's $814,944.
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Svmuu Noon News
1. Controversy over Anthropic’s model safety escalates; Amazons are accused of being the “masterminds” behind the regulatory intervention; 2. Nansen CEO: Low-cost models are eroding the competitive ed
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According to predict.fun, the probability of Switzerland finishing first in Group B of the World Cup has dropped to 47%, a 13% decline over the past 24 hours.
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, in the "Group B Winner" prediction event on predict.fun, the probability of Switzerland finishing first in Group B has dropped to 47%, a 13% decline
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Svmuu Morning Brief
1. It is "virtually impossible" for the CLARITY Act to pass before July 4; 2. Multiple organizations have filed a joint lawsuit against Kentucky’s 14.25% prediction market tax; Kalshi and Polymarket a
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Polymarket’s “retroactive clarification” sparks controversy: One student’s $35,000 prediction was invalidated, and a $3.8 million position was liquidated
Svmuu News: The prediction market platform Polymarket has issued a "settlement clarification,"overturning what had initially appeared to be a settled market outcome. This resulted in a $35,000 predict
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Multiple organizations have filed a joint lawsuit against Kentucky’s 14.25% tax on prediction markets; Kalshi and Polymarket are among the plaintiffs.
Svmuu News: An industry coalition comprising Kalshi, Polymarket, and others has filed a lawsuit seeking to block Kentucky’s 14.25% transaction tax on prediction markets. The tax, passed by the Kentuck
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A smart money bettor placed a $244,000 bet on the Spurs to beat the Knicks in Game 5 of the NBA Finals
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, in the Polymarket prediction event for "NBA Finals Game 5: Spurs vs. Knicks," a "smart money" account made a profit of $1.348 million (Address: 0xb6d
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predict.fun "U.S. wins Group D first" probability rises to 59%, up 21% in 24 hours
Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that in the predict.fun "World Cup Group D Winner" prediction event, the probability of the U.S. winning Group D has risen to 59%, up 21% in 24 hours. Meanw
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Svmuu Morning Brief
1. Anthropic: Suspending access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals; 2. Largest SPCX long position on Hyperliquid liquidated for $36.4 million, incurring a loss of $300,000; 3. U.S. military
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The battle for regulatory authority continues as the CFTC sues New Mexico to prevent it from regulating prediction markets
Svmuu reported that the U.S. CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico against state officials, including Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and Attorney General
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predict.fun "Canada wins Group B in the World Cup" probability drops to 27%, down 4% in 24 hours
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the predict.fun "World Cup Group B Winner" prediction event, the probability of Canada winning Group B has dropped to 27%, a 4% decrease in 24 hours. Additi
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CFTC sues New Mexico, continuing battle for regulatory control of sports prediction markets
Svmuu News: The U.S. CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico against Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, Attorney General Raúl Torrez, and other officials, aimi
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Former SEC Chair Gensler Opposes CFTC Jurisdiction Over Sports Prediction Markets
Svmuu Former SEC Chair and former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler, in an amicus brief filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, stated that the Dodd-Frank Act does not grant the CFTC the aut
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SPCX one hour before opening: Binance futures open interest stands at $395 million, Kraken IPO total subscriptions reach $888 million
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, there is 1 hour left before SPCX opens. Currently, Binance's futures open interest stands at $395 million, while Hyperliquid's futures open interest i
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SpaceX had $276 million in long/short bets before launch
Svmuureported that according to Arkham monitoring, ahead of the SpaceX (SPCX) launch, $276 million in capital had already been wagered on its price direction. On the long side, one address (0x9cc) wen
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Osasuna Denies Involvement in Kalshi Relegation Prediction Rumors, Predictive Market's "Insurance-like" Mechanism Draws Regulatory Attention
Spanish football club Club Atlético Osasuna has recently become embroiled in a controversy surrounding the prediction market platform Kalshi. Earlier market reports indicated that a Kalshi contract as
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predict.fun "South Korea wins Group A top spot" probability rises to 35%, up 14% in 24 hours
Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that in the predict.fun "World Cup Group A Top Spot" prediction event, the probability of South Korea winning Group A has risen to 35%, up 14% in 24 hours.
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X will enable users to trade SpaceX-related SPCX contracts via brokerages such as Coinbase and Robinhood
Svmuu reports: According to market sources, social platform X will allow users to trade SPCX through brokerage channels including Coinbase and Robinhood. It is important to note that SPCX is a trading
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Gary Gensler Submits Court Opinion Asserting CFTC Lacks Authority to Regulate Sports Prediction Markets
Svmuu, former CFTC and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has filed an amicus brief with the Court of Appeals, arguing that federal law does not grant his former agency, the CFTC, the authority to regulate spo
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Binance SPCX pre-market OI surpasses Hyperliquid, exceeding $252 million
SvmuuNews: According to official data, Binance SpaceX (SPCX) pre-market OI exceeded $252 million, while the pre-market open interest for SPCX on Hyperliquid was approximately $225 million, ranking fou
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Judge stays CFTC's civil case against US soldier over illegal Polymarket bet, regulator now seeks to weigh in on criminal proceedings
A judge stayed the CFTC’s civil case against a US soldier accused of using nonpublic information for a Polymarket bet, while the regulator is attempting to weigh in on the related criminal case.
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Needham Says Crypto Rally Has Strong Momentum, Prediction Market Kalshi Expects Bitcoin to Reach $90,000 This Year
Needham stated that the cryptocurrency rebound is strong, believing that the large-scale sell-off has largely ended and investor attention is shifting towards digital assets. The prediction market Kal
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Yahoo Finance Review: Gemini exchange offers bank-grade security and regulation, but has higher trading fees and limited coin selection
Reviews indicate that the Gemini exchange, founded by the Winklevoss brothers in 2014, operates as a New York trust company and is strictly regulated by state banking authorities, having reported no l
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Argus Downgrades DraftKings (DKNG) to Hold From Buy, Removes Price Target on Rising Costs, Tax Uncertainty
Argus noted that DraftKings' stock price has fallen by 43.22% over the past year, primarily due to high customer acquisition costs, rising state gaming taxes, and increased competition in prediction m
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Gemini partners with Apex Fintech Solutions to expand regulated crypto prediction markets
Under the planned tie-up, Gemini Titan will become the exclusive CFTC-regulated venue for crypto event contracts offered through Apex’s futures commission merchant to its brokerage customers. Gemini w
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Prediction Market Kalshi Faces Bans in Multiple US States Amid Legal Battles, While CFTC Defends Industry and Proposes New Rules
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is currently blocked for customers in Washington, Michigan, and Nevada, with Washington state authorities accusing the company of operating an illegal gambling bu
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Kalshi traders predict Bitcoin to end 2026 near current levels, around $75,000
Speculators on the prediction market platform estimate Bitcoin's price at the end of 2026 will be approximately $75,000, based on an average of contracts. This forecast suggests a slight decline from
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Prediction Markets Increasingly Skeptical on Near-Term US-Iran Nuclear Deal
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, currently prices the chances of a deal at 11% before March 1, 2027, 22% before January 1, 2028, and 35% before January 20, 2029.
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Research shows Bitcoin contracts on prediction market Kalshi increasingly lead Binance price discovery as BTC breaks $68,000
Research by financial forecasting firm Synth has found that the price movements of 15-minute Bitcoin contracts on Kalshi are increasingly predictive of subsequent Bitcoin price changes on Binance. Sin
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Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi Prediction Market Trading to Its ~3,000 Institutional Clients
The investment bank will help its institutional clients execute block event contracts on the CFTC-regulated Kalshi exchange. This move aims to increase institutional participation in prediction market
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South Korea moves to block Polymarket over gambling concerns
The Korea Media and Communications Commission stated that Polymarket's structure and operations amount to illegal gambling, despite its noncustodial design and smart contracts.
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JPMorgan Chase stopped providing banking services to prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns.
According to The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan Chase severed banking services with prediction market platform Polymarket in October last year, citing regulatory concerns. Despite the disruption in ban
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Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
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Prediction market Novig sues Wisconsin Attorney General in anticipation of state lawsuit over sports contracts
Prediction market platform Novig has filed a lawsuit against Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul and state gaming administrator John Dillett. The move is preemptive, as Novig anticipates Wisconsin wi
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Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting with cryptocurrency CEOs at the White House this Wednesday, sources say
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting at the White House this Wednesday that will bring together CEOs of cryptocurrency, prediction market, and artificial intelligence companies,
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Hyperliquid ETFs See Inflow Reversal Amidst Rising Perpetual Futures Competition
Funds including Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (HYPG), Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP), and 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) initially performed well, with HYPG nearing $113 million in AUM and the la
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Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
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Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
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Gemini shares slide after reporting $108 million loss; Winklevoss says 'we still have work to do'
The crypto exchange's prediction market volume nearly doubled as it continued expanding beyond traditional crypto trading.
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Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
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US CFTC to hold meeting on Aug. 20 to explore crypto, AI, and prediction market regulations with SEC, without waiting for CLARITY bill
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold a meeting for its Innovation Advisory Committee on Aug. 20 to address regulation related to crypto assets, artificial intelligence and pred
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US CFTC cautions prediction market platforms over "deficient" incentive program filings, citing manipulation risks
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued guidance, expressing concern over an increase in "procedurally or substantively deficient" filings from prediction market firms for ince
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Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
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SKALE Labs launches Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired paper-trading sandbox for training AI agents
SKALE Labs launched Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired, paper-trading prediction market sandbox on its zero-gas blockchain, allowing builders to train AI agents before taking them live on Polymarket.
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SX Network (SX) Token Analysis: Value, Applications, and Investment Considerations
SX Network is an EVM-compatible blockchain project focused on decentralized sports betting and prediction markets. Its native token, SX, plays a role in network governance, staking, paying gas fees, and obtaining fee discounts. SX Network has processed over $500 million in betting volume through its flagship dApp, SX Bet. However, as of the time of writing, the SX token has extremely low trading volume, and market liquidity faces challenges. This article will delve into SX's value proposition, technical features, tokenomics, and its potential investment risks.
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BOT (Bodhi) Coin Analysis: The Positioning and Current Status of Bodhi, a Decentralized Prediction Market Token
BOT, the native token of the Bodhi platform, aims to build a decentralized, transparent global prediction market. The project was originally developed on the Qtum blockchain, utilizing a replaceable oracle mechanism that allows holders to participate in arbitration, voting, and paying service fees. Bodhi was launched in 2017 with a total supply of 100 million BOT. As of recently, its market capitalization is approximately $1.67 million, with a unit price of about $0.04. Currently, the trading liquidity of BOT tokens is limited, and investors need to fully understand the risks involved.
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DPY Coin (Delphy): Project Overview and Current Market Status Analysis
DPY (Delphy) was once a mobile prediction market platform based on Ethereum, aiming to provide decentralized prediction services. However, as of August 2026, the market performance of DPY tokens has been extremely poor, with prices having fallen sharply from historical highs and market capitalization close to zero. Public information indicates that its trading liquidity has dried up, and it has been widely regarded as a high-risk asset, with almost no active trading market currently.
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POLK Coin Value Analysis: Is Polkamarkets' prediction market token worth long-term attention?
POLK is the native token of Polkamarkets, a decentralized prediction market platform initially based on Ethereum and later migrated to Polkadot. POLK is used for market creation, rewards, gamification, and transaction fee buybacks. As of August 11, 2026, POLK's market activity is extremely low, with both 24-hour trading volume and market capitalization at low levels, and a lack of a clear market narrative. Its long-term value depends on user adoption and ecosystem development, but it currently faces challenges of insufficient liquidity and limited market attention.
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Kalshi prediction market valuation soars to $22 billion, institutional demand drives strong growth
Prediction market platform Kalshi has reached a valuation of $22 billion after completing a $1 billion Series F funding round in May 2026, doubling its valuation in just five months. This significant growth is primarily attributed to accelerating institutional demand, with institutional trading volume surging by 800% over the past six months. As a platform federally regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi has captured over 90% of the U.S. prediction market share and plans to utilize the new capital to expand its product suite, including block trading and risk products, to meet growing market demand. Despite a brief slowdown in overall industry growth, Kalshi itself has demonstrated strong growth momentum.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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THALES Coin Trading Guide: Learn About Its Name Change and Where to Buy It
The THALES token is the governance token of the Thales Protocol, which focuses on prediction markets. It is important to note that the THALES token was recently renamed to Overtime (OVER) and migrated to a new contract. As a result, most trading activity in the market is now centered around the OVER token. This article will outline the historical trading activity of the THALES token and details regarding its rebranding, and will note that users may trade the token via decentralized exchanges (DEXs) or certain centralized platforms.
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How do I buy and sell POLK? On which major exchanges is the POLK token listed?
POLK is the native token of the Polkamarkets platform, a DeFi-based prediction market designed to provide decentralized cross-chain information exchange and event prediction capabilities. The POLK token is primarily issued on the Ethereum blockchain, and users can buy and sell it on centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX).This article will provide a detailed overview of how to trade POLK and the trading platforms where it is currently listed.
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What Is Augur (REP)? Analysis of REP Token Crowdfunding Price and Investment Prospects
Augur (REP) is a decentralized prediction market platform based on the Ethereum, which allows users to make predictions about real-world events. Its native token, REP, is primarily used for reporting and verifying event outcomes, ensuring the accuracy of the platform’s decentralized oracle.REP’s ICO was held in 2015 at a price of approximately $0.60, raising a total of about $5 million to $5.3 million. The investment outlook for REP depends on the adoption rate of the Augur platform, market competition, the regulatory environment, and its utility as a utility token—rather than as a passive investment.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
Forecasting the market
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