Forecasting the market
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Smart Money Bets $390,000 on a French Win in Regular Time
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup semifinal prediction event for France vs. Spain, the address RJW1—which had a total profit of $1.7 million—purchased $390,0
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predict.fun: England's odds of winning the World Cup have risen to 22%, surpassing Spain to rank second
According to PPP prediction market data, in the “2026 World Cup Champion” prediction event on predict.fun, England’s probability of winning has risen to 22%, moving it past Spain into second place. Fr
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Some idiot bet $550,000 on France advancing to the World Cup final
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Semifinal: France vs. Spain,” total losses exceeded $7.4 million. The account “mooseborzoi” (address
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Gate Prediction Market Launches Real-Time Price Movement Alerts to Help Users Efficiently Track Capital Flows
Svmuu News: The Gate Prediction Market has officially launched a real-time market anomaly alert feature. By monitoring large-volume buy and sell transactions in real time, this feature helps users qui
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OKX’s World Cup Prediction Event “Pick the Champion” is now live; participants who correctly predict the champion will receive a 500-point airdrop in the next round.
Svmuu News: According to official reports, OKX’s World Cup prediction event has launched the “Pick the Champion” feature. Users can select the eventual champion for free from among the four semifinali
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Prediction markets are projected to reach an average funding round size of $118 million by 2026, ranking first in the crypto industry.
Svmuu News: Statistics show that in 2026, the sector with the highest average funding amount per round in the crypto industry was prediction markets, with an average of $118 million per round. Exchang
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BLG failed to win the League of Legends MSI Mid-Season Invitational championship, and the Polymarket bet on whether “BLG would achieve the ‘Golden Path’ (Grand Slam)” settled as “No.”
According to data from the PPP prediction market tool, the League of Legends MSI (Mid-Season Invitational) World Championship has officially concluded. In the final, BLG suffered a narrow 2–3 loss to
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What Is Augur (REP)? Analysis of REP Token Crowdfunding Price and Investment Prospects
Augur (REP) is a decentralized prediction market platform based on the Ethereum, which allows users to make predictions about real-world events. Its native token, REP, is primarily used for reporting and verifying event outcomes, ensuring the accuracy of the platform’s decentralized oracle.REP’s ICO was held in 2015 at a price of approximately $0.60, raising a total of about $5 million to $5.3 million. The investment outlook for REP depends on the adoption rate of the Augur platform, market competition, the regulatory environment, and its utility as a utility token—rather than as a passive investment.
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Polymarket's revenue exceeded $11 million this week, setting a new record high
Svmuu reports that Polymarket's revenue this week has exceeded $11 million, setting a new record, with the protocol's cumulative revenue now surpassing $97 million.
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The defending champions continue their run; predict.fun currently puts the probability of “Argentina defeating Switzerland” at 57%.
According to PPP prediction market tools, in the “World Cup Quarterfinals: Argentina vs. Switzerland” prediction event on predict.fun, Argentina’s probability of winning is currently reported at 57%;
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$1.9 million profit in one week; bet $260,000 on Argentina vs. Switzerland with total goals over 1.5
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup quarterfinal event predicting the total goals in the Argentina vs. Switzerland match, “smart money” that had made a profit
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$2.3 million profit in one week; spent $380,000 on bets; Norway has not won in regular time
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup quarterfinal prediction event for Norway vs. England, the address “swisstony”—which had made $2.3 million in profits over 7
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Kane and Haaland Face Off; predict.fun Currently Puts the Probability of “England Beating Norway” at 51%
According to PPP prediction market tools, in the “World Cup Quarterfinals: Norway vs. England” prediction event on predict.fun, the probability of a Norway win is currently reported at 25%; the probab
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A "smart money" bettor placed a $146,000 bet on HLE to defeat LYON in the League of Legends MSI Losers' Bracket Final.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “MSI Losers’ Bracket Final: HLE vs. LYON,” the “smart money” account ROBBATTISTAFANDUELRETARD made a profit of over
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$980,000 in profits in one week; $330,000 spent on bets; Spain has yet to win in regulation time
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup quarterfinal prediction event for Spain vs. Belgium, the address “BreakTheBank”—which had earned $980,000 over 7 days—purch
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
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Some idiot bet $387,000 that Spain will beat Belgium in the World Cup quarterfinals.
According to PPP prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Quarterfinals: Spain vs. Belgium,” a “fool’s money” account that lost nearly $630,000 (address: 0x5b4e
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Transaction fees for order execution on predict.fun are now consistently lower than those on Polymarket
Svmuu News: Data shows that in the cryptocurrency and sports sectors, predict.fun’s order-taking fees are now consistently lower than those of Polymarket. Specifically, in the price range below 50¢, p
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In this do-or-die match, predict.fun currently puts the probability of “G2 defeating LYON in the League of Legends MSI Losers’ Bracket” at 78%.
According to PPP’s prediction market tool, the probability of G2 defeating LYON in the “League of Legends MSI Losers’ Bracket: G2 vs. LYON” prediction event on predict.fun is currently reported at 78%
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With no goals conceded so far in the tournament, predict.fun currently puts the probability of “Spain defeating Belgium” at 60%.
According to PPP prediction market tools, in the “World Cup Quarterfinals: Spain vs. Belgium” prediction event on predict.fun, the probability of a Spain victory is currently reported at 60%; the prob
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Svmuu Noon News
1. 10x Research: Bitcoin—The True Investment Logic May Lie in Space Infrastructure and Decentralized Computing; 2. Manus Plans Equity Deal at a $2 Billion Valuation; Tencent May Become Largest Shareho
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A "smart money" bettor placed a $90,000 bet on Conor McGregor to defeat Max Holloway in the UFC middleweight main event.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, “smart money” made over $5.81 million in profits on Polymarket’s “UFC Middleweight Main Event: McGregor vs. Holloway” prediction event (Address: 0x2c33
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North Carolina will impose a 6% tax on prediction markets, acknowledging the CFTC’s federal regulatory authority
Svmuu News: The budget bill signed into law in North Carolina takes a different regulatory approach to prediction markets. Effective January 1, 2027, the state will impose a 6% tax on net transaction
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Polymarket is seeking a U.S. margin trading license, which could allow users to place bets with less upfront capital
Svmuu News: Prediction market platform Polymarket is seeking U.S. regulatory approval to offer margin trading, which would allow users to place bets with less upfront capital. Through its affiliate, C
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Bernstein forecasts Bitcoin to reclaim $125K by late 2026, reaching $300K in 2029
Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026 before reaching $300,000 in 2029 under its base case, with a bull case of $500,000.
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Kalshi traders see rising odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal, with a 68% chance before Jan. 1, 2028, following Iran's claim of a revenue-sharing deal with Oman.
Kalshi traders see rising odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal, with a 68% chance before Jan. 1, 2028, following Iran's claim of a revenue-sharing deal with Oman. Specifically, the od
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Ahead of NVIDIA's earnings report, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/nvidia-earnings-preview-what-expect-q4-2024-2024-02-20/">prediction market</a> traders are betting on the company to beat earnings expectations, with a 97% probability of success.
Traders on the online prediction market Polymarket believe there’s a 97% chance NVIDIA will beat Wall Street’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) expectations when it reports earnings after market clos
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Judge stays CFTC's civil case against US soldier over illegal Polymarket bet, regulator now seeks to weigh in on criminal proceedings
A judge stayed the CFTC’s civil case against a US soldier accused of using nonpublic information for a Polymarket bet, while the regulator is attempting to weigh in on the related criminal case.
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Needham Says Crypto Rally Has Strong Momentum, Prediction Market Kalshi Expects Bitcoin to Reach $90,000 This Year
Needham stated that the cryptocurrency rebound is strong, believing that the large-scale sell-off has largely ended and investor attention is shifting towards digital assets. The prediction market Kal
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Yahoo Finance Review: Gemini exchange offers bank-grade security and regulation, but has higher trading fees and limited coin selection
Reviews indicate that the Gemini exchange, founded by the Winklevoss brothers in 2014, operates as a New York trust company and is strictly regulated by state banking authorities, having reported no l
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Argus Downgrades DraftKings (DKNG) to Hold From Buy, Removes Price Target on Rising Costs, Tax Uncertainty
Argus noted that DraftKings' stock price has fallen by 43.22% over the past year, primarily due to high customer acquisition costs, rising state gaming taxes, and increased competition in prediction m
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Gemini partners with Apex Fintech Solutions to expand regulated crypto prediction markets
Under the planned tie-up, Gemini Titan will become the exclusive CFTC-regulated venue for crypto event contracts offered through Apex’s futures commission merchant to its brokerage customers. Gemini w
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Prediction Market Kalshi Faces Bans in Multiple US States Amid Legal Battles, While CFTC Defends Industry and Proposes New Rules
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is currently blocked for customers in Washington, Michigan, and Nevada, with Washington state authorities accusing the company of operating an illegal gambling bu
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Kalshi traders predict Bitcoin to end 2026 near current levels, around $75,000
Speculators on the prediction market platform estimate Bitcoin's price at the end of 2026 will be approximately $75,000, based on an average of contracts. This forecast suggests a slight decline from
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Prediction Markets Increasingly Skeptical on Near-Term US-Iran Nuclear Deal
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, currently prices the chances of a deal at 11% before March 1, 2027, 22% before January 1, 2028, and 35% before January 20, 2029.
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Research shows Bitcoin contracts on prediction market Kalshi increasingly lead Binance price discovery as BTC breaks $68,000
Research by financial forecasting firm Synth has found that the price movements of 15-minute Bitcoin contracts on Kalshi are increasingly predictive of subsequent Bitcoin price changes on Binance. Sin
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Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi Prediction Market Trading to Its ~3,000 Institutional Clients
The investment bank will help its institutional clients execute block event contracts on the CFTC-regulated Kalshi exchange. This move aims to increase institutional participation in prediction market
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South Korea moves to block Polymarket over gambling concerns
The Korea Media and Communications Commission stated that Polymarket's structure and operations amount to illegal gambling, despite its noncustodial design and smart contracts.
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JPMorgan Chase stopped providing banking services to prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns.
According to The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan Chase severed banking services with prediction market platform Polymarket in October last year, citing regulatory concerns. Despite the disruption in ban
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Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
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Prediction market Novig sues Wisconsin Attorney General in anticipation of state lawsuit over sports contracts
Prediction market platform Novig has filed a lawsuit against Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul and state gaming administrator John Dillett. The move is preemptive, as Novig anticipates Wisconsin wi
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Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting with cryptocurrency CEOs at the White House this Wednesday, sources say
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting at the White House this Wednesday that will bring together CEOs of cryptocurrency, prediction market, and artificial intelligence companies,
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Hyperliquid ETFs See Inflow Reversal Amidst Rising Perpetual Futures Competition
Funds including Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (HYPG), Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP), and 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) initially performed well, with HYPG nearing $113 million in AUM and the la
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Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
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Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
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Gemini shares slide after reporting $108 million loss; Winklevoss says 'we still have work to do'
The crypto exchange's prediction market volume nearly doubled as it continued expanding beyond traditional crypto trading.
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Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
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US CFTC to hold meeting on Aug. 20 to explore crypto, AI, and prediction market regulations with SEC, without waiting for CLARITY bill
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold a meeting for its Innovation Advisory Committee on Aug. 20 to address regulation related to crypto assets, artificial intelligence and pred
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Gemini Exchange: The Path to Regulatory Compliance and Strategic Transformation
Founded in 2014 by the Winklevoss twins, the Gemini exchange is known for its strict regulatory compliance, holding a NYDFS trust charter and CFTC derivatives license. In 2025, Gemini filed for an IPO, and in 2026, it announced its "Gemini 2.0" strategy, shifting its focus to prediction markets and event contracts, while also adjusting its international market presence. Despite facing the Gemini Earn controversy and SEC charges, customer compensation has been completed. The platform is renowned for its security, but users have expressed negative feedback regarding its customer service and account issues.
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SX Network (SX) Token Analysis: Value, Applications, and Investment Considerations
SX Network is an EVM-compatible blockchain project focused on decentralized sports betting and prediction markets. Its native token, SX, plays a role in network governance, staking, paying gas fees, and obtaining fee discounts. SX Network has processed over $500 million in betting volume through its flagship dApp, SX Bet. However, as of the time of writing, the SX token has extremely low trading volume, and market liquidity faces challenges. This article will delve into SX's value proposition, technical features, tokenomics, and its potential investment risks.
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BOT (Bodhi) Coin Analysis: The Positioning and Current Status of Bodhi, a Decentralized Prediction Market Token
BOT, the native token of the Bodhi platform, aims to build a decentralized, transparent global prediction market. The project was originally developed on the Qtum blockchain, utilizing a replaceable oracle mechanism that allows holders to participate in arbitration, voting, and paying service fees. Bodhi was launched in 2017 with a total supply of 100 million BOT. As of recently, its market capitalization is approximately $1.67 million, with a unit price of about $0.04. Currently, the trading liquidity of BOT tokens is limited, and investors need to fully understand the risks involved.
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DPY Coin (Delphy): Project Overview and Current Market Status Analysis
DPY (Delphy) was once a mobile prediction market platform based on Ethereum, aiming to provide decentralized prediction services. However, as of August 2026, the market performance of DPY tokens has been extremely poor, with prices having fallen sharply from historical highs and market capitalization close to zero. Public information indicates that its trading liquidity has dried up, and it has been widely regarded as a high-risk asset, with almost no active trading market currently.
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POLK Coin Value Analysis: Is Polkamarkets' prediction market token worth long-term attention?
POLK is the native token of Polkamarkets, a decentralized prediction market platform initially based on Ethereum and later migrated to Polkadot. POLK is used for market creation, rewards, gamification, and transaction fee buybacks. As of August 11, 2026, POLK's market activity is extremely low, with both 24-hour trading volume and market capitalization at low levels, and a lack of a clear market narrative. Its long-term value depends on user adoption and ecosystem development, but it currently faces challenges of insufficient liquidity and limited market attention.
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Kalshi prediction market valuation soars to $22 billion, institutional demand drives strong growth
Prediction market platform Kalshi has reached a valuation of $22 billion after completing a $1 billion Series F funding round in May 2026, doubling its valuation in just five months. This significant growth is primarily attributed to accelerating institutional demand, with institutional trading volume surging by 800% over the past six months. As a platform federally regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi has captured over 90% of the U.S. prediction market share and plans to utilize the new capital to expand its product suite, including block trading and risk products, to meet growing market demand. Despite a brief slowdown in overall industry growth, Kalshi itself has demonstrated strong growth momentum.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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THALES Coin Trading Guide: Learn About Its Name Change and Where to Buy It
The THALES token is the governance token of the Thales Protocol, which focuses on prediction markets. It is important to note that the THALES token was recently renamed to Overtime (OVER) and migrated to a new contract. As a result, most trading activity in the market is now centered around the OVER token. This article will outline the historical trading activity of the THALES token and details regarding its rebranding, and will note that users may trade the token via decentralized exchanges (DEXs) or certain centralized platforms.
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How do I buy and sell POLK? On which major exchanges is the POLK token listed?
POLK is the native token of the Polkamarkets platform, a DeFi-based prediction market designed to provide decentralized cross-chain information exchange and event prediction capabilities. The POLK token is primarily issued on the Ethereum blockchain, and users can buy and sell it on centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX).This article will provide a detailed overview of how to trade POLK and the trading platforms where it is currently listed.
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What Is Augur (REP)? Analysis of REP Token Crowdfunding Price and Investment Prospects
Augur (REP) is a decentralized prediction market platform based on the Ethereum, which allows users to make predictions about real-world events. Its native token, REP, is primarily used for reporting and verifying event outcomes, ensuring the accuracy of the platform’s decentralized oracle.REP’s ICO was held in 2015 at a price of approximately $0.60, raising a total of about $5 million to $5.3 million. The investment outlook for REP depends on the adoption rate of the Augur platform, market competition, the regulatory environment, and its utility as a utility token—rather than as a passive investment.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
Forecasting the market
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