Svmuu News Although a small number of vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz recently, hundreds remain stranded—Iran holds the decision-making power for safe passage, and a pattern of selective clearance has already formed.
Data from the commodity analysis firm Kpler shows that before the conflict erupted, approximately 100 oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily; now, only 2 pass daily on average, with 400 oil tankers still stranded.
Analysts at JPMorgan stated in a report to clients that the "vast majority" of vessels transiting the strait are "Iranian vessels," and Iran appears to allow specific vessels to pass only after verification.
"The reality is that the strait is not officially closed, but passage rights increasingly depend on political understandings with Tehran," the analysts wrote. Some vessels briefly detour through the channel between Larak Island and Qeshm Island near the Iranian coast, hugging the Iranian shoreline before exiting the strait. JPMorgan analysts noted: "This is not a regular route; this move may be to confirm vessel ownership and cargo, clearing vessels unrelated to the US and its allies."
It is reported that some vessels, including those bound for India carrying liquefied petroleum gas, have successfully passed through the strait after their governments negotiated with Iran and obtained safe passage permits. During peacetime, about one-fifth of the world's crude oil and refined products are transported through the Strait of Hormuz, while overland alternative export routes have been extremely limited for decades.
Although Trump urged US allies to intervene to reopen this waterway, the allies' response has been lukewarm. As the war enters its 18th day, the promised US naval escort has yet to materialize.
Data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), under the British Royal Navy, shows that from the outbreak of the war until this Tuesday, a total of 21 reports of vessels being attacked or affected around the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman were received, with 16 of them being attack incidents. (Jin10)