According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin demand remains in a phase of "deep contraction." As of the end of March, the 30-day apparent demand decreased by approximately 63,000 BTC, indicating that selling pressure in the market still outweighs buying pressure. Although both ETFs and Michael Saylor's Strategy have increased their purchases, it remains insufficient to alleviate the overall pressure. Specifically, ETF purchases over 30 days reached about 50,000 BTC, the highest level since October 2025, while Strategy's 30-day accumulation remained around 44,000 BTC.
CryptoQuant notes that large holders ("whales" holding 1,000–10,000 BTC) have shifted to net selling, reducing their holdings by 188,000 BTC over the past year, confirming sustained structural selling pressure. Medium-sized holders ("dolphins" holding 100–1,000 BTC) are still accumulating, but the pace has significantly slowed, dropping from nearly 1 million BTC in October 2025 to 429,000 BTC. Additionally, demand from U.S. investors has recently weakened, with the Coinbase premium mostly negative, suggesting that retail investors have not yet entered the market on a large scale.
CryptoQuant states that if the macro environment improves, particularly with a de-escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions, Bitcoin could experience a short-term rebound to the range of $71,500–$81,200. Within this range, $71,500 serves as the initial resistance level, while $81,200 represents the upper limit for a bear market rally. (The Block)