Svmuu strategists warn that the possibility of central banks like the Federal Reserve raising interest rates rather than cutting them is growing.
Although there are concerns about war-induced inflation, there are signs that other factors are equally influencing long-term borrowing costs. In the United States, the so-called "real yield" after stripping out inflation has had a greater impact, suggesting that bond investors are worried about more than just the price pressures from the Iran war. Other drivers include: a potentially expanding public debt burden that is already large, the impact of the artificial intelligence investment boom, and the increasing possibility that central banks like the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates rather than cut them.
Strategists at ING, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays have all highlighted a common speculation: the recent rise in some long-term yields will not be completely reversed, even if oil price-driven inflation subsides. This means that even if the conflict ends, market borrowing costs could remain near multi-year highs, continuing to put pressure on governments and economies. (Jin Shi)