Svmuu News, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's price has retraced approximately 20% over the past month, with two key on-chain indicators showing sustained market sentiment pressure. Among them, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score has dropped from 0.95 a month ago to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that the previous valuation premium has largely been digested and the market has entered a range more conducive to long-term accumulation.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day simple moving average of Net Realized Profit/Loss has been in negative territory for 22 consecutive days, meaning the market has been completing transactions at a loss since May 18. The indicator hit a low of approximately -$1.2 billion on June 6 and has since slightly recovered to around -$1.1 billion. Although market pressure is evident, it remains below the extreme levels of approximately -$2.2 billion seen during the 2022 bear market capitulation phase.
Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that currently, a large number of holders are selling Bitcoin below their cost basis, reflecting significant market fear and capitulation sentiment. However, the MVRV Z-score remains above 0, suggesting that the market has not yet entered a deeply undervalued zone, nor has it presented a historically significant value trough.
He believes that combining these two indicators, while market sentiment is relatively weak, valuations have clearly cooled down. Going forward, key focus points will be whether the Net Realized Profit/Loss can return above the zero line and whether the MVRV Z-score can maintain a positive value. If the MVRV Z-score falls below 0, or realized losses move closer to the extreme levels of 2022 once again, it could signal the onset of a deeper phase of market capitulation.