Svmuu News: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on X that active Bitcoin investors are currently experiencing an overall unrealized loss of about 20%, and market sentiment is in a “de-valuation” phase, though it has not yet reached the level of severe pressure seen during historical bear markets.
Darkfost pointed out that the True Market Mean (TMM) currently stands at approximately $76,700. This metric reflects the average cost basis of actively circulating BTC (excluding long-dormant, potentially lost, or illiquid supply).Historically, this level served as a significant resistance zone in May, prompting some investors to exit the market with no loss or only a small loss. Meanwhile, the AVIV ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) currently stands at approximately 0.8, indicating that active investors are, on average, down about 20% from their cost basis.By comparison, during historical bear markets, this metric typically drops to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to a deeper pullback of approximately 40%–50%.
Analysts believe that the inflow of institutional funds and ETFs during this cycle has not altered the cyclical nature of the “Bitcoin”; the market continues to operate according to its own structure. Although significant pressure to de-value has emerged, a rebound may be triggered without necessarily falling to the extreme levels seen in historical bear markets; overall, a cautious assessment of cyclical fluctuations remains necessary.