Svmuu News: Paradis Labs posted on X stating that it is currently difficult to determine whether semiconductor stocks have bottomed out. Most AI infrastructure-related stocks rose that day, with SIVE, AEHR, and IQE gaining more than 20%, and SNDK, MU, and AAOI rising more than 10%.
Paradis Labs noted that regardless of today’s returns, the coming weeks will be more critical for gaining greater clarity: On July 22, GOOGL will release its second-quarter earnings report, which will serve as the first official gauge of annual capital expenditures for hyperscale cloud providers—a sector valued at approximately $750 billion; July 22–23: AMD will host its “Advancing AI” event, providing insights into foundry utilization, advanced packaging, and laser-related demand roadmaps through 2027; On July 23, INTC will report its second-quarter earnings; 18A yield and foundry commitments are likely to be key variables, while momentum in U.S. domestic manufacturing and packaging can also be assessed; On July 23, IBM will report its second-quarter earnings; its market capitalization has already fallen by approximately 25%, and the market’s reaction to the lower-than-expected earnings guidance warrants attention; On July 24, the 10% global tariff deadline expires, with new tariffs expected to be imposed on dozens of countries—this will act as a factor contributing to stagflation and influence the narrative surrounding the Fed’s rate hikes; On July 27, the full Kimi K3 weighting will be released; July 28–29: The FOMC meeting takes place; experts and Polymarket expect interest rates to remain unchanged. It is worth noting that an interest rate hike or signals of a hike could mark the first true systemic shift in AI trading; July 29–30: META, MSFT, and AMZN will report earnings, providing further data on capital expenditures; July 30: The U.S. will release June core PCE data.
Paradis Labs also noted that the U.S. and Iran could reach a ceasefire at any time. A 10-day proposal remains on the table, while attacks continue. An officially confirmed ceasefire would support oil prices and benefit semiconductor stocks. The above represents a high-level timeline of major upcoming events, all of which will impact semiconductor stocks to varying degrees. AI capital expenditures will be the most critical factor when hyperscale cloud providers report their earnings.